Saturday January 28, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday in Cairo the Syria embassy was raided. It was sacked. The first and second floors were totally destroyed by rioters.
At first it was assumed that the rioters were disgruntled Syrians attacking a symbol of their oppressive thugocracy.
But looking at the video it appears that while some of the vandals may be frustrated expat Syrians, the mob was primarily local Egyptians frustrated by the Assad government in Syria and the continued murder of innocent civilians.
I know --- the irony is not lost: Egyptians protesting violence by perpetrating a violent act which could have ended in the brutal murder of embassy employees.
The sacking of the embassy was not really covered by the media. But neither was the sacking of the Saudi embassy a few months ago.
The raid on the Israeli embassy was covered but at first, very slowly. It happened over a weekend so it really was hard to get any real coverage and by the time it was covered, it was over.
It seems that in Cairo, sacking embassies has become a feature of the political landscape and an expression of freedom of speech.
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Friday January 27, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Dubai Police Chief Lieutenant-General Dahi Khalfan is currently visiting Bahrain. Khalafan took the opportunity to speak about tensions in the region.
He explained that the region is close to war. He said that the first signs of war are already apparent.
"The world will not allow Iran to block it (the Straits of Hormuz). But Tehran is capable of narrowing it to the maximum. In the 1980s, it attacked ships which were afraid to cross the strait. This caused an increase in shipping insurance to enter the Gulf. Prices went up and the region became tense. So, Iran is capable of fomenting tension in the region."
Iran can easily narrow the Straits of Hormuz even more and do it without shooting a single shot - and it will be the beginning of a strangle hold on the West.
Iran can also slow down the traffic in the Straits by creating such a narrow passage that it requires such a slow and gradual process that it will cause ships to spend several days in the crossing.
If they do implement this plan it will take Western monitors a while before they even realize what has happened. By that time Iran will have successfully achieved their goal without conflict and the West will be standing there stupefied and flatfooted.
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Thursday January 26, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
The White House has just announced that it will be fast tracking monetary aid to Egypt.
The White House is asserting that last week they had unprecedented meetings with the Muslim Brotherhood. Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats said that Egypt should earn "more immediate benefits" for its move to democracy.
The White House has been pursuing the Muslim Brotherhood for a while now. The US ambassador to Egypt and Senator John Kerry were both sent to talk to the Muslim Brotherhood. That's called high level dialogue and even higher dialogue just took place.
The Muslim Brotherhood is now a group the White House thinks they can work with. The White House cannot be more wrong.
Thinking that the Muslim Brotherhood has been turned into a liberal organization and lovers of democracy is simply myopic and wrong.
There is no real evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood wants to change.
The only evidence we have is that the Muslim Brotherhood wants US aid.
They know what they need to say. They know what the US wants to hear. The Muslim Brotherhood will say anything to get their money.
It just makes no sense.
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Wednesday January 25, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday 52 people were killed in Syria. 39 of those killed were in Hama.
These killings in Hamas are particularly poignant. In February of 1982 Bashar Assad's father and uncle massacred 20,000-40,000 people in that same city.
The history of that massive massacre still resounds in the Syria culture. It is an extremely important motivational force and is the reason why today, Hama is a center of anti-Assad activity.
Also yesterday, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) decided to pull their observers out of Syria. They followed the example of Saudi Arabia which had pulled their observers on the very day that the Arab League decided to continue their monitoring of Syria.
Now that the six countries of the GCC have pulled their monitors, the Arab League is questioning whether they will go or stay.
It has become obvious that these monitors have done nothing to stop the killings. Actually the opposite --- more Syrians have been killed since the Arab League sent in their monitors than had been killed before.
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Tuesday January 24, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Kommersant, an important Russian business newspaper, ran a story in yesterday's edition saying Russia just signed an arms deal with Syria.
According to the story in the paper Russia will deliver thirty-six YAK-130 fighter jets to Syria in exchange for $550 million.
There is great significance to this deal - and not because it is a large scale deal and might signify the revamping of the Syrian military.
It is so significant because it illustrates how neither Syrian leadership nor Russian leadership see the tensions in the Syrian street as having any long term impact on the future control and leadership of Bashar Assad in Syria.
The YAK-130 is a brand new plane. It is the fourth generation of YAK and only came on line in December 2009.
All in all, the most remarkable aspect of this deal is that it shows the West that the other side of the world has a very different view on events that we assume to be so very obvious.
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Monday January 23, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
The Arab League decided to extend its mission of monitoring events in Syria for another month.
This is good news for the Syrians.
However, at the very same time, Saudi Arabia decided to pull its monitors from Syria.
The Saudis say that the monitors have failed to bring any security or safety to Syria. They maintain that the 10 months of violence conducted by the Assad government continues as the monitors simply wander and observe.
This Saudi action is extremely damaging to what has, until now, been a united action by the Arab League. The Arab League has tried, albeit unsuccessfully, to exert influence on Syria. But Saudi Arabia has come to the conclusion that they are having no real impact.
I think the Saudis are acting wisely - or at least, in the best interest of the citizens of Syria. It appears that officially sanctioned violence against Syrian citizens has been on the increase since the monitors arrived.
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Sunday January 22, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Khorramabad, a city of 328,000 in Western Iran, was the site of an assassination yesterday.
A high level army officer was shot and killed, his assistant was injured in the attack. The attackers, on a motorcycle, shot and then drove off.
Motorcycles are extremely useful tools of assassins. Cycles allow for fast escape and mobility and the assassins wear helmets with sun shields which mask their faces.
Motorcycles as a method of attack are not only extremely effective, the technique requires very little practice to perfect. Attackers can easily ditch the motorbike several blocks away, split up and escape using other prearranged vehicles.
In a professional hit the shooters are almost immediately whisked out of the country. They are through security and on a departing plane waiting in the airport within hours of the hit.
These attacks in Iran are most probably carried out by locals who go to safe houses or even resume their normal lives afterward the attacks.
To make this effective as an internal operation, the players must know only about the task they perpetrate. The group must be very small and secretive.
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Saturday January 21, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Iran is once again showing mastery in international gamesmanship.
Iran has announced that international observers may enter their country and they have expressed willingness to talk about their nuclear program.
This action automatically throws a monkey wrench into the sanction plan of the United States. Now the countries that the US is courting to join with them in international sanctions can respond by saying: let's wait, Iran is showing a willingness to talk.
At the same time Iran is threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz.
On any given day about 30% of the world's oil travels through those narrow straits. This threat increases the price of oil and adds pressure to the oil dependent economies of Europe - it applies the crunch that makes it very difficult to think straight. With all this maneuvering emanating from Iran it stands to reason that European countries will start to wonder if acting against Iran's oil is in their individual best interest when their oil costs are going to sky rocket.Iran prepped these actions very well and they expect to see serious results.
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