Saturday July 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A G-8 Summit meeting will take place next week in Europe.
This will be a hot one with a discussion on Iran occupying a central spot on the agenda.

Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi will propose increasing sanctions against Iran.
The Europeans are particularly peeved at Iran since the aftermath of the June 12th election there.
The big news is that it looks like the United States will block Italy's sanction move.

Strange, but true. Here's why:
The natural allies of Iran in the G-8 are China and Russia.
China and Russia can sometimes be convinced that Iran needs to be sent a message to improve and/or change.
But China and Russia will never budge if the United Sates is in their court.

This move by the United States is part of the new foreign policy agenda that the United States is putting into action toward Iran and the Middle East.

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Friday July 3, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinian Authority arrested several more Hamas members today.
This was the follow up to a group of arrests from last week.
This is not politics, these are real arrests.

Hamas was plotting to assassinate Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority.
They had plans to attack PA institutions.
They had an entire hit list of people to eliminate.

Abbas made reference to it all in an interview over the weekend on European TV.
Hamas leadership denies the plots.
Those who were arrested have confessed.
They say the motivation for the hits was to scuttle the PA/Hamas agreements that were in the works in Egypt.

One question remains: are the attempted assassinations enough to ruin the relationship.

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Thursday July 2, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The 13th African Union Summit convened yesterday in Libya.

Gathered together are the leaders of many African countries and special invitees like Chavez of Venezuela.
The host of the Summit, Libya's Muammar Ghadaffi, is also the head of the African Summit.

Several notable invitees and members will not attend.
Berlusconi of Italy will not attend.
Mubarak of Egypt will not attend.
Ahmadinejad of Iran will not attend.

Topics to be discussed include: coups, global warming, drought and the environment, civil wars and the world economic downturn.

I want to see how these leaders approach several issues: the recent elections in Iran, Obama's new attitude to the Muslim world and the Palestinian/Israel peace initiative.

I am watching the proceedings very closely.
I am curious, very curious.

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Wednesday July 1, 2009

Column:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad does not make empty threats.

Last week the president of Iran threatened the president of Azerbaijan. Using his foreign minister as a mouthpiece, Ahmadinejad threatened to severely punish Azerbaijan if the official visit of Israeli President Shimon Peres was not cancelled.

The official visit went on as planned. And this week the Iranian ambassador to Azerbaijan was called home.

Shimon Peres, undaunted by the diplomatic curve he had been thrown Azerbaijan, continued on to the Central Asian country of Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan is a burgeoning country. It has a blossoming economy and its influence in the Muslim world is substantial and growing more substantial. Kazakhstan is a country in the right place, with the right natural resources, at the right time in history.

Kazakhstan is the 2nd largest producer of uranium in the world and has, by far, the largest uranium reserves in Eurasia. The only country that has more uranium than Kazakhstan is Australia, but Australia can never wield the influence over the Muslim world that Kazakhstan can wield. Nuclear energy speaks volumes in today's world.

Shimon Peres had multiple agendas in going to Kazakhstan. One of those reasons was expanding relations between Israel and a significant Muslim country. Another reason had to do with nuclear energy. Peres wanted assurances that Kazakhstan would not be supplying nuclear fuel to Iran. The promises were received, but promises from Kazakhstan are not completely reliable.

Last year I wrote about a train that departed from Kyrgyzstan, crossed into Kazakhstan and then crossed the border into Uzbekistan where it was intercepted and stopped. The train was making its way to Iran. The train was filled with uranium. It had already traveled through and crossed over the entire Kazakh before it was stopped on the Uzebeki side of the border.

The Uzebeki border guards were shocked to find the uranium. They sent it back and alerted the Kazakh government. In retrospect, that was probably not the wisest move. According to most people in the know, including International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohammed el Baradei, Kazakhstan is one of the most nuclear-trafficked states in the world.

Uranium is for Kazakhstan what oil is for Saudi Arabia. Every country will want it, many countries will need it and Kazakhstan will be one of the only countries that has it. Estimates for the revenue Kazakhstan will reap exporting their natural resource are coming in high, as high as $15 - $20 billion a year for this sleepy little Asian Muslim country.

Central Asia is the future battlefield for the conflict between East and West. It is where Islam retains a strong moderate tradition, it is also where the Fundamentalist population is growing. Kazakhstan realizes that it is coming of age and that it will very soon be in control of the world's supply of nuclear fuel much the same way OPEC is in control of the world's oil production and supply.

We must keep a very close eye on Kazakhstan. We must nurture the Kazakhs and help them grow responsibly. We must cultivate a deep and trusting relationship with Kazakhstan. We must make every effort to lure Kazakhstan away from Iranian influences. If Kazakhstan falls under the influence of Iran the results will be cataclysmal for the Western world.

That is why Iran's president saw fit to make threats. It is why Israel's president thought it wise to pay a visit.

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Tuesday June 30, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The Guardian Council in Iran confirmed yesterday that the June 12th elections will stand and that the partial recount and the investigations into all the irregularities did not change the outcome of the election.
None of this should have come as a surprise.

The Guardian Council is one of the two most important councils in Iran. It is composed of 12 people - 6 are appointed by the Supreme Leader, 6 are chosen by the parliament.
Members presented to parliament are nominated by the head of the Judicial, who is also appointed by The Supreme Leader.

The Assembly of Experts is the second most powerful council in Iran.
The Assembly of Experts is a group of 86 people required to meet at least twice a year for at least two days.
The Assembly of Experts appoints The Supreme Leader. In theory, they could also remove The Supreme Leader.

According to Iranian law, in order to be a member of either the Guardian Council or the Assembly of Experts, one must be a religious expert.
Several of the reformists running for position in this past election called for a reformation of the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts as part of their political platform.

It was an unacceptable stance.
One of the leaders of the reform is The Ayatollah Rafsanjani and he is the head of one of the councils.
Rafsanjani certainly does not want any limits put on his power.
Rafsanjani is also the leader of another council, the Expediency Council, which makes him the only significant check to both The Supreme Leader and president Ahmadinejad.

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Monday June 29, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

There was a shootout between Sunnis and Shiites in West Beirut, Lebanon, yesterday.

The conflict was between groups aligned with the future prime minister and groups aligned with the speaker of the parliament.

In the election that took place in Lebanon last month Sunni supporters defeated Shiite supporters.

Now tensions are on the rise.

Shiites and Sunnis are staking out their turfs.
A 30 year old woman was killed and 3 others were injured in the shootout.

One of the injured was actually one of the shooters.
Reports said that only small arms fire was used in the shootout.

When we read small arms, we think pistols.
In Lebanon, small arms include automatic rifles aka machine guns, mortars and rockets.

Beirut is a powder keg.
Literally.

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