Saturday July 5, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Earlier this week the President of Iraq, Jala Talibani, shook hands with former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak in Greece.
They were introduced by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas at the World Socialist International Conference in Greece.
Talibani is a Kurd, he leads the PUK which is one of two Kurdish parties in the ruling authority in Iraq.
Because of the hand shake many members of the Iraqi parliament have called for a public apology, others have demanded Talibani's resignation. The Iraqis say it is against Iraqi law to shake hands with an Israeli.
The fact is it is not against the law, the law is ambiguous, which means it is not illegal.
Talibani's office issued a statement that he shook Barak's hand as the representative of the PUK Kurdish party, not as president.
Supporters of the handshake said: "He was welcomed by Abbas who introduced him to Barak. It would have been illogical to refuse. It doesn't mean relations are normal."
Actually, not shaking hands would have been un-Arab and unacceptable public protocol. When one Arab leader introduces another Arab leader to some other leader, etiquette requires polite behavior.
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Friday July 4, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
On Friday the families of 4 Iranian diplomats arrived in Beirut.
They are the families of diplomats who disappeared in Lebanon in 1982.
Iran claims that Israel took them and has detained them since their capture in July of 1982.
Part of the deal with Hezbollah that includes exchanging live Arab prisoners for dead Israeli soldiers includes exchanging files of information.
Hezbollah will deliver their information on Ron Arad, the Israeli navigator shot down over Lebanon near Sidon in 1986.
The Iranians believe that the 4 diplomats are still alive.
The Israeli report will show that the Iranians were captured and killed by the Lebanese Christian Phalange group commanded by Hubeika, who was killed 6 years ago.
The Hezbollah report will say that they can not locate Ron Arad. It will say that Arad was captured before Hezbollah was created but they know that he died soon after his capture.
Israeli intel based on interrogations has Arad alive after capture and dying in the early 1990's, other intel has him dying in the mid 1990's.
There is no answer as to exactly when or how Ron Arad died or where his body is now located.
Information will be exchanged, but nobody will learn or be convinced of anything new.
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Wednesday July 3, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The Associated Press ran an excellent piece yesterday on Hezbollah's influence in Iran and in Iraq.
The piece will probably only run as a line item in a few papers around the world. So pay attention to what AP has revealed - this is important.
AP has proof that Hezbollah has been training Shiites fighters first in Iraq and, three months ago, started training fighters in Iran.
The objective is to attack Sunnis and US strongholds in Iraq and destabilize the situation.
Hezbollah is a highly trained Shiite force.
Hezbollah is Arab.
Iran is happy to have Hezbollah train their own and Iraqi fighters.
Iraq is happy because Hezbollah instructors speak Arabic and can fit in without raising suspicion like an Iranian, who speaks only Persian, would do.
According to AP, Hezbollah has left the Lebanese comfort zone and expanded to include pan-Muslim fighting. Iran is investing in better instructors because Iran realizes that the conflict is bigger than a few tribes in Iraq.
Iraq is a real prize for Iran and the Iranians do not intend to give up without a serious fight.
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Wednesday July 2, 2008
Column:
Ever since the Friday June 20th piece in The New York Times describing an Israeli air force training exercise into Iran analysts and prognosticators have been busy commenting, speculating and, in many cases, downright fantasizing.
The front page piece detailed an exercise involving hundreds of Israeli fighter jets flying over nine hundred miles and refueling mid-air on a practice run into Iran in order to destroy Iran's nuclear capability. Now everyone is busy speculating on if and when Israel will invade and attack Iran for real, not merely as exercise.
Truth is Israel might invade Iran, but only when there is no other alternative, only if the international community falls down on its job and allows Iran to achieve independent nuclear capability. And that time is not now. And should that time come, Israel will not announce it anywhere, not in the Israeli press, not in the international press and certainly not on the front page of The New York Times.
The story was released not by Israel, the story was released by the United States. Publicly announcing Israel's ability to target Iran is not in Israel's best interests - it is in the interest of the United States. This story was pitched not by Israel in an attempt to place pressure on Iran, it was pitched by the United States, a public relations ploy, a way for the Washington to apply pressure on Iran. True, Israeli defense and diplomatic channels have neither denied nor confirmed the activity and they have probably collectively chuckled over the speculative effect this story is having, but it was not their leak.
Washington is telling Teheran that there is a third party out there and that party is acting independently. Washington is telling other European capitals to look out for Israel, because Israel can do it on its own - and Israel will destroy Iran's nuclear capability on its own if they do not hurry up and act to get Iran under control.
The training exercise that took place a few weeks ago, in early June, was not the first such exercise by the Israeli air force. It will not be the last. Israel needs to plan. Israel needs to be prepared for a worst case scenario. Israel needs to be ready to thwart an imminent attack.
At the point of no return, if it seems certain that Iran has gone beyond the threshold and is on the verge of having everything necessary to create their nuclear bomb, at that last possible moment, that's when Israel will attack. And according to all Israeli estimates - if Iran cannot be derailed by the international community, that time will not come for at least another eighteen months.
An Israeli attack will be a specifically targeted attack. Israel will not set out to destroy everything Iran has, that takes too much effort and the risks are too high. All Israel needs to do is derail Iranian nuclear productivity, to set back the clock, to delay the process. A successful Israeli attack against Iran will be an attack that buys the time to bring down the weight of the world upon Iran and ultimately destroy Iran's dreams of successful nuclear development.
When Israel hit the Syrian agricultural laboratory on September 6th of last year the air force knew how to negotiate the mountain ranges of Turkey. They knew because they had practiced and practiced and practiced and they had permission from Turkey to fly over Turkish air space. Specifically, they had permission from Turkey to fly over their air space in order to enter and exit not Syria - but Iran. The Turkish government was not pleased, to say the least, that Israel chose to use their air space to bomb Syria without asking, but Turkey got over it, because Turkey realizes the need to keep Iran in check and Turkey knows that should all else fail, Israel will be forced into action.
Should international sanctions of Iran prove effective, Israel is less likely to attack Iran. Should the international community successfully limit Iranian nuclear development an Israeli attack will be less likely regardless of the vitriol and intensity of Ahmadinejad's verbal attacks against Israel and the West. Should Iranian Supreme Leader The Ayatollah Khamenei lose confidence in Ahmadinejad and trust that Israel and the international community are capable of striking Iran and should he consequently decide to soften Iran's nuclear stance, even for the short term, the possibility of an Israeli attack is reduced.
Inner Iran and the international community factor into the Israeli decision making process. But probably the most significant factor of all is the next president of the United States of America. Israel will not and cannot go into Iran without the permission of the United States and that permission is handed down directly from the Oval Office. Israel will petition for carte blanche permission. They will probably get a conditional yes depending on the intelligence reports and urgency. That's the way it played out on September 6, 2007. Plans were in place and Israel wanted to hit the Syrian site during the summer. The United States said no, the United States wanted more intelligence, proof that more and more materials were arriving from North Korea. And then, when the United States was satisfied of the need and the urgency, Israel attacked.
Iran has said publicly that "the Zionists do not have the capacity to threaten the Islamic Republic." But Iranian leaders know Israel's potential and they are willing to walk the tight rope, to balance the odds. Iran wants to be in control. Right now, Iran has the most to gain from this conflict. The Iranians are getting tremendous pan-Muslim support by simply standing up to the United States and drawing Israel into the conflict.
Israel realizes how dangerous Iran is. Israel knows how costly an air attack will be. If the time is right, if Israel does attack Iran, know that, without a doubt, we will have reached the point of no return.
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Tuesday July 1, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
I am always intrigued when Arab leaders express envy.
Envy is not an emotion that Arab leaders display in public.
So imagine my surprise when I heard the following from Walid Mouallem, Syria's foreign minister: "As a private citizen, I wish Syria had this program quite simply because Israel has made huge advances in its manufacturing of nuclear bombs."
Wow.
The context of this statement is important.
Mouallem was speaking to Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere and referring to the inspection of Syria's nuclear capabilities. The real question is whether on September 6, 2007 Israel bombed a harmless lab or a nuclear facility.
Humility is a classic Arabic emotion, not envy.
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Monday June 30, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Iraqi troops shot and killed their 20th female suicide bomber this year.
Last year, in the entire twelve months, there were only 8 Iraqi female suicide bombers.
That is a very big jump .
This tells us 3 very important things about Iraq.
# 1: Terrorists are resorting to using women.
The truth is, terrorists do not want to use women. Many religious leaders in these movements have rejected women, and yet they continue to come.
# 2: The fact that the Iraqis discovered and shot this terrorist says the Iraqis are on the ball. It takes infinitely more skill to detect a female suicide bomber than a male suicide bomber.
# 3: Local Iraqis are really involved in the effort to rid their country of terrorists and have actually started taking the lead over the military.
These are all good signs.
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Sunday June 29, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Saudi authorities arrested 250 terrorists this past week.
Hundreds more have been arrested over the past few months.
The arrests are an act of self-preservation on the part of the Royal Family.
Without a doubt Muslim extremists are out to topple the Saudi Royal family.
They want to place an Islamic sheik as their head, as the leader of Arabia.
And if happens the country will no longer be called Saudi Arabia which is named after the House of Saud.
The Saudis are acting out of their own self interests, but there are important regional and global by products of these arrests.
Great intelligence material is reaped from these arrests - about terrorist plans, operatives and activities around the world.
This information is shared with countries interested in fighting global terror.
That is how the war on terror is waged - through shared information.
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