Wednesday May 22, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
The Iranian committee that vets candidates for president has nixed two popular people from next month's presidential elections.
Both men were expected to be disqualified. But there was still a chance that the Guardian Council, the committee that makes these decisions, would have been swayed to make exceptions.
Former president Rafsanjani was barred from running because he is simply too old. The requirements for a candidate in Iran say that you must not be older than 70. Rafsanjani is 78.
The second disqualified candidate is Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei. He is only 53. But Mashaei had an unfair advantage and that is why needed to be sidelined. Mashaei is very close with President Ahmadinejad and was his former chief of staff.
The kicker, or perhaps the kiss of death, was that when Mashaei went to register as a candidate Ahmadinejad accompanied him. That was in violation of Iranian election law and Mashaei could not benefit from his public association with Ahmadinejad.
The presidential field is still very large. Over the next week the few contenders will the most potential will begin to emerge.
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Tuesday May 21, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
US President Obama spoke on the telephone with Lebanese President Suleiman yesterday.
Obama emphasized his concerns about Syria and about the possibility of the conflict spilling over into Lebanon.
He also explained that he was concerned about Hezbollah which is located in Southern Lebanon, and with their role in supporting Assad.
This is all true.
The real problem, however, emerges in that in Lebanon, Hezbollah is independent. President Suleiman has no control over Hezbollah. If anything, it is Hezbollah that has tremendous influence over Lebanon.
There is no question that Hezbollah is on Assad's side in Syria and they are fighting to help maintain his position.
Most telling is that Obama felt the need to even mention to the president of Lebanon his issues with Hezbollah.
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Monday May 20, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Coverage of Syria is pretty biased. It is extremely difficult to get a sense of what is actually happening.
We generally refer to the people fighting Assad as the rebels. But the situation is more complicated than mere labels. Assad and his forces are supported by Hezbollah fighters and Iranian advisers.
The rebels are composed of many groups. Some of the rebels are locals, others are foreigners. Some of the rebels are secular and others are al Qaeda.
Internal bickering between rebel groups has escalated to the point where they have now begun to fight one another. In the northern Syrian city of Aleppo rival rebel groups, both Islamic, are fighting one another. They are kidnapping each others' fighters.
A group called the Judicial Council accused the group called Ghurabaa al Sham of robbing their factories. And now, after about a week of fighting, both groups have taken prisoners.
This is just the beginning. It is highly unlikely that tensions will scale down between the two groups.
Assad is taking advantage of the internal feuding. Assad's forces, together with Hezbollah, began a major offensive with the support of jets and helicopters. The plan is to start taking back strategic areas in the north around Aleppo. These rebels are playing right into his hand.
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Sunday May 19, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Syria has set its highly advanced and extremely accurate Tishreen surface-to-surface missiles on standby. And they are aimed at Tel Aviv.
Assad has put the alert command into place. Syria is to launch the missiles immediately after getting the command.
All this is in this morning's Sunday Times of London.
On Saturday, Clarin, an Argentinian newspaper, published an extremely rare interview with Syrian President Bashar Assad saying that the rebels are getting intel and support from Israel.
He said:
"Israel is directly supporting the terrorist groups in two ways, firstly it gives them logistical support and it also tells them what sites to attack and how to attack them. For example, they attacked a radar station that is part of our anti-aircraft defenses, which can detect any plane coming from overseas, especially from Israel."
There are two reasons for this important declaration.
First, is to try to isolate the rebels by saying that they are being aided by arch enemy Israel. Second, is to justify a Syrian strike against Israel. Israel has already attacked Syria three times and in doing so they are aiding the force which is dedicated to ousting his regime.
This new status makes the already unstable regional atmosphere even more combustible.
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Saturday May 18, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
United States Secretary of State John Kerry will visit Israel next week.
Expectations have dropped since I first wrote about this impending visit three weeks ago.
The plan has not changed, Kerry with attempt to breathe new life into an old and dead interaction.
Kerry has two agendas to carry out on this quick trip. He will visit Israelis in Jerusalem and meet with Palestinian leadership in Ramallah. He will attempt to sit them down - face to face.
Before arriving in Jerusalem, Kerry will visit Amman, Jordan.
There he will meet with some of the Syrian opposition groups. It is very difficult to meet with the rebel groups of Syria because each one has different loyalties – but none of them are pro-Western.
Kerry believes this trip will have substance to it. I think if will be a lot of fluff.
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Friday May 17, 2013
I've Been Thinking:
Moscow is asking why they are being publically challenged about supplying weapons to Syria.
"I do not understand why the media is trying to create a sensation out of this," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is quoted by AFP as saying. "We have not hidden that we supply weapons to Syria under signed contracts, without violating any international agreements or our own legislation."
He is correct. Russia is not hiding anything and they are not violating any international laws. They are trying to protect their investment in Syria. They have invested in hardware and in infrastructure. And they have invested in human capital in the form of Bashar Assad himself.
Here's the rub: While Russia is not violating international laws there is no doubt that Syria is violating their contracts with Russia. The contracts say that the weapons will be used in defense and that they will not be transferred or resold. That they will not be given to terrorist organizations.
Russia asserts that there is nothing else they can do other than insist that the contacts be held up.
Unfortunately, that is not enough.
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