Thursday March 11, 2010
Column:
"Better to be smart than right."
The world of foreign policy runs on its own set of rules. Unlike in the real world, in the world of foreign policy the opposite of smart is not necessarily not smart, or dumb. The opposite of right is not necessarily wrong. The idea that in the midst of a dispute the right decision will inevitable emerge, the right action will ultimately be taken, does not hold in foreign policy decisions. In the real world there is no argument that can trump the ability to do, or implement, the right thing. In the world of foreign policy, that argument does not hold true.
In foreign and even in domestic policy, being right is not always the best way to go. The smart way is the way to go. Just because the argument is correct, or right, does not make it the appropriate thing to say or wise action to take.
When Eli Ishai, the Israeli minister of the interior and leader of the right wing Shas party, chose to make an announcement about the projected building of 1,600 apartments in Jerusalem in the midst of an extended visit by United States Vice President Joe Biden, Ishai chose right over smart.
As a result of the announcement the vice president was forced to issue a strong, serious, public statement condemning Israel's action and decision. Biden labeled Israel's decision as not productive. And when Biden met with Palestinian leaders shortly after the announcement was made topping their list of gripes against Israel was Israel's deliberate defiance of pre-set conditions and terms, Israel's desire to be contrary and to engage in non-productive behavior - all as exemplified by their announced intention to build new housing units. They say they are halting settlement activity, yet they announce a new project. Israeli leaders, say the Palestinians, are really closet settlers.
The Palestinian complaint about Israel is the same complain that Israel makes about the Palestinians - that they cannot be trusted.
Shas and Eli Ishai defend their announcement. They maintain that they were correct, i.e. right, in acting as they did. Their argument goes that this announcement reflects the reality - that Israel does what is best for Israel and will not be dictated to by the United States. Ishai and Shas believe that Jerusalem is 100% under Israeli control and that there is no compromising when it comes to Jerusalem. They believe that Jerusalem neighborhoods need to expand if only because of natural growth and demand.
Because of Shas' conviction and their impulsive desire to pursue the right way, an unconditionally positive public relations event now, suddenly and completely avoidably, has a black cloud hanging over it. A decision to say nothing or to wait for another opportunity to make this announcement would not have been a case of right versus wrong. It would have been the smart thing to do.
When the vice president of the United States visits Israel, he arrives with full court press. Every where he travels in Israel all foreign press stationed in Israel travel along. Every journalist covering the Middle East from Israel latches on to his entourage. China, Japan, India, Denmark, Norway, Sweden - they all have their correspondents follow every movement of the vice president, each one hoping to get a moment's access with the man perceived to be the second most powerful person in the United States. And they were all there to cover Joe Biden's biting critique of Israel.
Interior Minister Eli Ishai will not be muzzled. The Shas party will not be punished. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu does not have the backing to bounce them out of his coalition government. With all the safety and security issues facing Israel, with all the neighboring countries hoping to wipe little Israel off the map, it's shameful that right now Israel's worst enemy comes from within.
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Wednesday March 10, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Israel has announced the construction of 1600 new apartments.
The announcement was a major embarrassment for Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
The announcement was made while US Vice President Joe Biden was visiting Israel.
Netanyahu had told everyone, his cabinet, his advisers and even his press people ... no surprises ... no embarrassments.
Biden was forced to give Israel a tongue lashing. A perfectly uneventful and exclusively positive visit was turned into a tense moment and an international diplomatic incident.
Why? What motivated an announcement like that?
The decision was made by head of the Shas party and Minister of the Interior, Eli Ishai.
Ishai wanted to deliberately taunt the United States and their micro management of Israel.
Ishai used this announcement to say to the Israeli public that his party will not bend to the will of the United States.
Ishai was saying that the United States is not the most powerful force in the universe.
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Tuesday March 9, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Sunday's election in Iraq was a water shed event.
This was the second ever free democratic election in Iraq. This year 62.4% of the people came out to vote, in the 2005 election, 76% voted. The results are still not clear and even after the results are made public it will take a few weeks for us to understand what is really happening.
The most important revelation to emerge from this election is that the Sunni population came out to vote. In 2005 the Sunnis were effectively removed from any chance of holding elected office because they had boycotted the election.
The delicate balance that has been forged between Sunnis and Shiites since 2005, what we call Iraq today, may yet be shattered. The Sunnis want to put serious distance between Iran and Iraq, they want to make certain that Shiite tones are not sounded in Iraq.
We don't yet know what will happen.
We do know that the big loser in this election is definitely al Qaeda.
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Monday March 8, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
According to the Israeli press, Israeli leaders have issued an ultimatum to Palestinian leaders.
In private conversations, Israel has told Palestinian leaders that they must move and move seriously to prevent the Palestinian uprising.
The Israelis said that if tensions and incitement do not drop significantly Israel will start making arrests. This comes in response to a dramatic increase in public incitement against Israel - incitement that has been unofficially condoned by public officials.
A Palestinian rebellion is in the making.
Israel is trying to convince Palestinians leadership that a rebellion against Israel is not in their long term interests.
Israel will not permit the Palestinians to create another Intifada.
I think the Palestinians have gotten Israel's message - now they have to make a decision.
If there is another Intfada, thousands of Palestinian will die and any hope of Palestinian statehood will be pushed off again.
But an Intifada is good for local, political, popular support it will look as if Palestinian leadership is taking a stand against Israel.
All this is happening against the backdrop of a resumption of indirect negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, scheduled to be announced later today.
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Sunday March 7, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Saturday night US Presidential special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell landed in Tel Aviv and met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
This meeting sets the stage for the announcement of indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians. On Monday Joe Biden arrives in the region and everything is expected be in place for the vice president.
This is a classically well choreographed American event.
It will be pitched perfectly for history, for the cameras, for the world to watch.
The only problem is that the parties are not quite up to the task.
Israel and the Palestinians have been playing a game and neither has been honest about their stand on indirect talks.
The Israelis and the Palestinians are placating the United States.
We will learn what they each really want only after the talks begin.
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Saturday March 6, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Under new leadership, the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has begun to take nuclear development by Iran and Syria much more seriously than it had in the past.
Over the past several months Syria has been challenged by the IAEA on more that one occasion.
An IAEA report shows beyond the shadow of any doubt that Israel destroyed a nuclear facility in deep in Syria.
The Syrian ambassador to the IAEA, Bassam Sabbag, insists that it is not so.
Sabbag claims that the uranium readings that were detected were a set up by the Israelis.
Sabbag claims that the Israeli sprinkled uranium in the area after they bombed the agricultural facility.
Conspiracies and conspiracy theories abound in the Middle East.
The more far fetched they are, the more likely they are to spread with a vengeance
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Friday March 5, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
A team of Australian police investigators is now in Israel investigating the case of the Australian passports that were used during the assassination of Mahmoud Mabhouh.
This is not unusual.
What turns this bit of investigative work into news is that on Thursday, after leaving the Australian Embassy in Tel Aviv, the team hit a female bicyclist with their vehicle. They ran over the bike and kept on going.
They did not stop.
This is a serious violation of the law in any country. That police officials did not stop is scandalous. The woman, thankfully, was not badly injured. She is, however, demanding an apology and a new bicycle wheel.
In general, one of the rules of safe counter espionage in very risky environments is not to stop after minor accidents.
What appears to be a minor accident can in actuality be a trick, an attempt to kidnap the operative or to place a bug.
But this was downtown Tel Aviv.
An innocent, however unfortunate, encounter may now turn into a diplomatic incident. This time there is real evidence - as opposed to the assassination the Australian team is investigating which is filled with speculation.
Then again, this would be a Mossad-like tactic to discredit the Australians, wouldn't it.
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