Monday May 21, 2012
I'm Predicting:
Yesterday, Benny Gantz, Israel's Military Chief of Staff, took off on a spontaneous visit to China.
Gantz and had accepted an invite from China's Vice President Xi Jinping. According to almost everyone, within the next few months Xi Jinping will become the next premier of China.
Gantz and Israel have important contacts that need cementing in China.
There will certainly be talk about Iran. No doubt Gantz and Xi Jinping will also speak about oil and of course, nuclear proliferation.
China wants to know if Israel intends to strike Iran. If yes, when?
Israel wants to know how much control China can exert on Iran. They want to know how effective that control can be and whether China can, with certainty, say that Iran is not interested in nuclear weapons -not in selling them and not in launching them.
I await the reports from this very important visit.
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Sunday May 20, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Iran passed their 2013 budget. It is equivalent to a whopping $462 billion.
This new budget is a reduction of 9% from the 2012 allocation. Iran is tightening its belt. Next year will be more difficult for them, especially if the cost of oil drops and the Iranians know that full well.
If, however, the cost of oil stays at $100/ barrel Iran will more than likely have more than enough to cover the budget.
That is what happened in the last quarter of 2011. The sanctions began to work and more and more countries began applying pressure on Iran. Just as the Western world began to believe that there was a chance that serious pressure could be brought upon the Iranians - the price of oil increased and so did Iran's profits.
Just this week Iraq overtook Iran as the second largest oil exporter in the region. And the price of oil per barrel has continued to drop and remains below $100.
These are signs that we must monitor closely.
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Saturday May 19, 2012
I'm Predicting:
The President of Iran has announced that he wants to attend this year's summer Olympics hosted in London.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that he wants to accompany his young athletes and show them support. The statement was covered in great detail by the Iranian news media, explaining just how much pride the Iranian team brings to the Islamic Republic.
Great Britain, however, is not very pleased with the Iranian leaders desire to attend. It is not yet clear if an official request has been submitted by the Iranians.
Given the nature of the Olympics and the important message of the Games which is that the Olympics is above politics and symbolizes the ability of nations to compete in the sports arena and not fight battles that threaten and endanger human lives - it would be highly unlikely for England to deny this request.
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Friday May 18, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Iran threatened to sue Google.
From the Iranian point of view, the suit has great merit and touches upon a critical issue. It involves Iran's identity and her pride.
It is about her history and about her name.
In their Google Maps section, Google has renamed the peninsula that had once been called the Persian Gulf and Peninsula. They are now calling it the Arabian Gulf and Peninsula.
This battle over names has been an ongoing and fierce fight in the region. It was the cause the cancelation of the Pan Islamic games.
Arab countries in the region insist on calling the water and region the Arabian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula. Iran thinks otherwise.
The reality is that Google can call it whatever name it wants - provided it is an established name. And Iran has the right to block Google and Google Maps and prevent it from being received on Iranian computer networks.
But that is, to their chagrin, all the recourse available to the Iranians.
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Thursday May 17, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Ampal - American Israel Corp., the Israeli energy company, owns 12.5% of East Mediterranean Gas, the Egyptian owned company that exports natural gas to Israel and Jordan.
Yesterday Ampal wrote off their investment and gave it up. They have been invested in the company for 20 years.
Their pipeline was being bombed on an almost monthly basis. And when the first quarter figures came in, it became apparent that Ampal was taking big losses. Some tanking was expected but the dollar figures more than proved the point. Last year Ampal made $17 million in the first quarter. This year's first quarter losses showed $215 million.
No company can justify that loss.
Ampal, the Israelis and the American investors all need to cut their losses and run.
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Wednesday May 16, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
There has been an explosion in the oil pipeline in Syria. The bombing was originally reported by Syrian rebels and then it was reported in the Syrian press. The press also reported that pipelines had been bombed by rebel forces on April 21 and April 29.
There are several important issues here. Syria is not a player in the world oil market so the destruction of these oil lines will have no impact on world prices. Syrian production is already at 30% of what it was before the rebellion.
The explosion/s will, however, have a serious impact on Syrian cash flow. Oil is extremely fungible and the Syrians need the cash so they need to export whatever they can. The EU has a block against Syrian oil.
Convenience in shipping is very important and this oil is easily piped to the ports, loaded onto tankers and shipped. The best partner for oil from Syria is Iran they use tankers which are flags for hire. They get the crude and take it where it needs to go. But right now many Iranian tankers are filled with oil and sitting, waiting for a port of call to unload their black gold.
It seems that the pressure being applied to Iran is impacting, perhaps even more strongly and effectively, on Syria.
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Tuesday May 15, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
Egypt is suffering from a double health crisis. This kind of public health disaster has the potential to devastate not only Egypt but the entire region, including Israel.
Egyptian animals and livestock are suffering from both Foot and Mouth Disease and from Avian Flu.
Millions of animals are sick at this stage, there is almost no stopping the diseases. The Avian Flu has been spread by animals infecting humans. Egypt has had 60 deaths so far and almost 200 people are known to be infected with the deadly flu. More than any other county outside of Indonesia.
The Foot and Mouth Disease was imported from Libya during the uprising when
more than 10% of Libyan livestock were killed because of it. In order to avoid the losses herds were hurried across the border into Egypt and now much of the meat is contaminated.
The only method of stopping these diseases, outside of mass slaughter, is to isolate or inoculate. Because of the current status of the army and the lack of any faith in government there is almost no chance that anything will be done. $1.8 million worth of shots arrived in March, but they have barely been used.
This could destroy the protein sources of the region and spill back into Libya, Sudan, Gaza, the West Bank and Israel.
This is serious.
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