Wednesday January 26, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Now that Condi Rice has been confirmed by the Senate, it is time to make a few predictions.

I predict that the new Secretary of State:
* will need almost no learning curve and be up and running Foggy Bottom asap
* will perpetuate the zero tolerance attitude from the leaders of the Middle East so that the Bush policy against terror continues as if uninterrupted
* will be greeted by one of two scenarios vis a vis the Middle East
- less likely: people will tow the US line not only because Rice is so well prepared and demanding, but out of fear and respect generated after the Iraq invasion
- most likely: that leaders and politicians in the Middle East will do to her what they have done to so many other Western diplomats, befuddle them with the status quo, with local and religious issues and with doubletalk making it almost impossible to accomplish the larger US agenda

That means that Arab leaders on the ground, especially those who were hoping for 4-6 months of unsupervised American policy will have to rethink their own approach to US initiatives.

Condi Rice knows the players and understands their games.
She has a reputation.