Thursday April 12, 2007

I'm Predicting:

The Israelis have been presented with a list of people Hamas wants in exchange for the return of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier kidnapped by Hamas at the Gaza border.
The Israelis have rejected many people on the Hamas wish list.
The negotiations are being brokered by a third party - Egypt.

This is the way the negotiations go:
Israel says that those with blood on their hands will not be set free.
Hamas responds by saying that the entire deal is doomed because Israel has not accepted their terms.

This is what will probably happen:
Elderly prisoners and those who have served nearly their entire sentence will be let out.
Those who have served 20 years or close to 20 years will be part of the deal. And as a bonus, to sweeten the deal, Israeli will throw in one very famous person.

In the end, both sides will be unhappy.
In the end, both sides will be satisfied.
In the end, that is how negotiations work when you want it badly enough.
But it will still take some time to get there.