Monday May 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Let's analyze Syria.

Let's look at the tensions and tradeoffs Syria is currently confronting.

First: Lebanon - Syria has enormous interests in Lebanon and wants to maintain them. Syria is willing to scale down and lessen the involvement but only temporarily. Syria has no interest in giving up influence over Lebanon.
To Syria, Lebanon is a province of Syria.

Second: Iran - Syria is beholding to Iran and needs Iranian investments and support. Even if Syria wanted to divorce from Iran it would be impossible, the connections are too deep and the commitments too critical to daily operations. Iran has invested in Syrian factories, infrastructure and security.

Third: Israel - Syria wants one thing from Israel and that is the Golan Heights. But Syria does not want it enough to give up ties with either Lebanon or Iran in return for the Heights.

No Arab leader would give up two known commodities for the promise of a third.
And that explains why, from the Syrian point of view, there can be no traction on the peace front with Israel.

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