Sunday February 5, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Palestinians Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and the head of Hamas, Khalad Mashaal, met on Sunday in Doha the capital of Qatar.

They met to talk about creating an independent interim government which would enable and organize presidential and parliamentary elections.

The PA and Hamas have been talking about unity and about elections for some significant time now, but have not yet progressed any further than saying that this is what we want.

This time also there is very little chance of success. Hamas think that they have already been elected - and have not yet served. The PA does not want to cede any power.

Creating a government to enable an election is a potential black hole. Once an interim government is in place there is no guarantee that elections will follow. And even if there are elections there are no guarantees they will be honest or that the results will be honored.

History has taught us that there is almost no chance of uniting the PA and Hamas in order to bring about united Palestinian elections.

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Saturday February 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

How naive and how gullible are we?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) wrapped up its meeting in Iran and then fed us all a great line. The meetings, they said, were positive - the Iranians are interested in talks and in inspections and there is a second round scheduled for later in February.

True, but only a partial story. The inspectors asked to see the facility in Parchin and the Iranians did not permit their entry.

Here is where it gets very tricky. The Iranians did not use the word "no" they just sidestepped the question. End result is that the IAEA inspectors were not permitted to inspect Parchin because the Iranians did not allow it, but yes, the Iranians did not say no to the IAEA.

Here is where it becomes troubling. Because the Iranians did not say no, the meetings and talks were considered a success in the eyes of the West and of the IAEA.

This is hardly a success - it is playing right into the hands of the very capable Iranians. It might come as a surprise to Westerners, but in many cultures - including Persian culture, it is impolite to say "no" and there are literally numerous ways of saying no without saying no.

Once again, the Iranians have succeeded in doing things their way.

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Friday February 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

One of the Arab world's most popular comedians was convicted and sentenced to 30 months in prison yesterday for the crime of insulting Islam.

This, not surprisingly, happened in the New Egypt.

Adel Imam, a truly iconic character in the Arabic world, has been an entertainment fixture for years. His shtick is to poke fun at politicians and politics. His humor is a test of the prevailing winds. At times, he went too far.

The sentence was handed down as a result of a 2001 movie called Morgan Ahmed Morgan. The film tells the story of a corrupt businessman who tries to buy a university diploma. The Egyptian sentencing judge said that Imam depicted Islamic symbols with disrespect and that he disrespectfully depicted a group of men dressed in Islamic garb. Imam went too far for the sensibilities of New Egyptian leadership.

Imam's most popular role was in a 1998 movie called Al Zaeem in which he played an Arab dictator. In 2008 he was found guilty of defaming lawyers, but that decision was overruled.

Adel Imam was tried in absentia. It was said that he was in Egypt recently to film a TV series but no one knows his current whereabouts.

One of the Arab world's most popular comedians has fallen out of favor by the New Egypt. During the rebellion Adel Imam defended Mubarak.

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Thursday February 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Germany upgraded the diplomatic status of the Palestinian Authority. The PA had been a "representation" and now they are a "mission." A mission means that the top representative to the host country is a ambassador that they may fly their flag.

This is a serious increase in diplomatic clout. Germany follows France, Spain, Portugal and Ireland in upgrading the PA.

Israel responded to the diplomatic upgrade by saying that the PA is getting the wrong message. Israel is saying that the Palestinian Authority is being rewarded with diplomatic upgrades for walking away from the negotiation table.

Israel is trying to suggest that the opposite should have taken place. Dangle the diplomatic upgrade as a reward in order to influence the PA to act diplomatically - don't just give that diplomatic perk away.

There is something fundamentally flawed in this picture. Diplomatic upgrades are huge and they just don't slip back down in status, they should be achieved as the result of serious transitions, not wishful thinking and vacuous promises.

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Wednesday February 1, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Senate Intelligence Committee held a hearing yesterday. Syria and Iran were on the agenda.

David Petraeus, head of the CIA, explained to the senators that Israel and the United States see the threat of Iran differently.

From his testimony it became clear that Tamir Pardo, chief of Israel's Mossad, had been in Washington DC on Thursday.
This little bit of information made my jaw drop. The travel plans of the Mossad head are never supposed to be common knowledge.

The Committee also heard that there seems to be no real compromise position in Syria and that Iran sees the Assad regime as an asset. The senators were told that the loss of Syria as an Iranian asset would be a great loss to the Iranians.

What the United States does not seem to understand is that:
#1: Assad will not leave on his own
#2: the locals do not have the wherewithal to oust Assad.

They people of Syria need help, our help, help from the West. Iran is helping Assad stay in power.

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Tuesday January 31, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions between the United States and Israel about how to respond to Iran continue to rise. They have a clear difference of approach on how to handle the situation.

Israel has no doubt that Iran is on the verge of nuclear independence which would, in turn, enable the Iranians to provide enough refined uranium to make nuclear warheads. Israel says that the "window" is 5 months to 18 months. Action must take place before that window closes.

The United States sees the situation very differently. The US wants to continue to monitor and not act. It is far less of a threat for the US and the clock is not ticking nearly as loud as it is for Israel.

But both the US and Israel - and add to that even Iran, know that Israel does not have a knockout punch that would eliminate the entire Iranian nuclear threat. Rather, Israel has a knockdown punch which will delay progress. That means that the US will also have to engage Iran if they want to do the job right.

Israel has another option. They can attack the sites of Iran's national infrastructure - the military headquarters, the intelligence centers, the communication centers, the command and control centers.

That may be the best backup plan Israel can develop.

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Monday January 30, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has begun to play hard ball. Iran wants to frighten and to threaten the West.

Yesterday Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qassami announced that Iran will soon stop exporting oil to certain Western European countries.

This announcement came at the same time that the vote in the Iranian parliament over a bill to cease exporting oil to Western European countries was postponed.

Qassami also said that he anticipates that oil will soon reach between $120 - $150 a barrel.

These statements and actions are all meant to strike fear into the hearts of Western decision makers.

Increasing the cost of oil to $150 a barrel will be a crushing blow to certain economies - especially Western European economies. These countries are dependent on oil - and they had already decided that as of June 31 they will not renew any new Iranian oil contracts.

That decision is at the root of Iran's decision to shoot back with statements and moves aimed at hurting Western Europe. Iran rightly believes that Europe cannot sustain itself without reasonably priced oil.

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Sunday January 29, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas has a real problem. They have, to use a colloquialism, ticked off their sugar daddy.

And so, next week Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh will be on his way to Iran to beg for money and support. Haniyeh just returned from his very first trip outside of Gaza, now he will be travelling again.

Iran is so angry at Hamas that under normal circumstances it would be doubtful that they would grant an extension on their lease - for life and for money.

What did Hamas do wrong? Hamas did not support Assad. Iran asked Hamas to lend support and instead Hamas spoke out against Assad. Now Hamas no longer has an interim home in Syria.

As if the situation was not grim enough, a group of Shiites were attacked a few weeks ago in Gaza. That was the nail in the coffin for Hamas.

Iran is not going to be easily swayed. The only thing going for Hamas is that Iran needs proxies and they need friends - now more than ever. If they beg hard enough, Hamas might just be able to bring Iran around, at least for the short term.

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Saturday January 28, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday in Cairo the Syria embassy was raided. It was sacked. The first and second floors were totally destroyed by rioters.
At first it was assumed that the rioters were disgruntled Syrians attacking a symbol of their oppressive thugocracy.

But looking at the video it appears that while some of the vandals may be frustrated expat Syrians, the mob was primarily local Egyptians frustrated by the Assad government in Syria and the continued murder of innocent civilians.

I know --- the irony is not lost: Egyptians protesting violence by perpetrating a violent act which could have ended in the brutal murder of embassy employees.

The sacking of the embassy was not really covered by the media. But neither was the sacking of the Saudi embassy a few months ago.

The raid on the Israeli embassy was covered but at first, very slowly. It happened over a weekend so it really was hard to get any real coverage and by the time it was covered, it was over.

It seems that in Cairo, sacking embassies has become a feature of the political landscape and an expression of freedom of speech.

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Friday January 27, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Dubai Police Chief Lieutenant-General Dahi Khalfan is currently visiting Bahrain. Khalafan took the opportunity to speak about tensions in the region.

He explained that the region is close to war. He said that the first signs of war are already apparent.

"The world will not allow Iran to block it (the Straits of Hormuz). But Tehran is capable of narrowing it to the maximum. In the 1980s, it attacked ships which were afraid to cross the strait. This caused an increase in shipping insurance to enter the Gulf. Prices went up and the region became tense. So, Iran is capable of fomenting tension in the region."

Iran can easily narrow the Straits of Hormuz even more and do it without shooting a single shot - and it will be the beginning of a strangle hold on the West.

Iran can also slow down the traffic in the Straits by creating such a narrow passage that it requires such a slow and gradual process that it will cause ships to spend several days in the crossing.

If they do implement this plan it will take Western monitors a while before they even realize what has happened. By that time Iran will have successfully achieved their goal without conflict and the West will be standing there stupefied and flatfooted.

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Thursday January 26, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The White House has just announced that it will be fast tracking monetary aid to Egypt.

The White House is asserting that last week they had unprecedented meetings with the Muslim Brotherhood. Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats said that Egypt should earn "more immediate benefits" for its move to democracy.

The White House has been pursuing the Muslim Brotherhood for a while now. The US ambassador to Egypt and Senator John Kerry were both sent to talk to the Muslim Brotherhood. That's called high level dialogue and even higher dialogue just took place.

The Muslim Brotherhood is now a group the White House thinks they can work with. The White House cannot be more wrong.

Thinking that the Muslim Brotherhood has been turned into a liberal organization and lovers of democracy is simply myopic and wrong.

There is no real evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood wants to change.

The only evidence we have is that the Muslim Brotherhood wants US aid.

They know what they need to say. They know what the US wants to hear. The Muslim Brotherhood will say anything to get their money.

It just makes no sense.

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Wednesday January 25, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday 52 people were killed in Syria. 39 of those killed were in Hama.

These killings in Hama are particularly poignant. In February of 1982 Bashar Assad's father and uncle massacred 20,000-40,000 people in that same city.

The history of that massive massacre still resounds in the Syria culture. It is an extremely important motivational force and is the reason why today, Hama is a center of anti-Assad activity.

Also yesterday, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) decided to pull their observers out of Syria. They followed the example of Saudi Arabia which had pulled their observers on the very day that the Arab League decided to continue their monitoring of Syria.

Now that the six countries of the GCC have pulled their monitors, the Arab League is questioning whether they will go or stay.

It has become obvious that these monitors have done nothing to stop the killings. Actually the opposite --- more Syrians have been killed since the Arab League sent in their monitors than had been killed before.

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Tuesday January 24, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Kommersant, an important Russian business newspaper, ran a story in yesterday's edition saying Russia just signed an arms deal with Syria.

According to the story in the paper Russia will deliver thirty-six YAK-130 fighter jets to Syria in exchange for $550 million.

There is great significance to this deal - and not because it is a large scale deal and might signify the revamping of the Syrian military.

It is so significant because it illustrates how neither Syrian leadership nor Russian leadership see the tensions in the Syrian street as having any long term impact on the future control and leadership of Bashar Assad in Syria.

The YAK-130 is a brand new plane. It is the fourth generation of YAK and only came on line in December 2009.

All in all, the most remarkable aspect of this deal is that it shows the West that the other side of the world has a very different view on events that we assume to be so very obvious.

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Monday January 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League decided to extend its mission of monitoring events in Syria for another month.

This is good news for the Syrians.

However, at the very same time, Saudi Arabia decided to pull its monitors from Syria.

The Saudis say that the monitors have failed to bring any security or safety to Syria. They maintain that the 10 months of violence conducted by the Assad government continues as the monitors simply wander and observe.

This Saudi action is extremely damaging to what has, until now, been a united action by the Arab League. The Arab League has tried, albeit unsuccessfully, to exert influence on Syria. But Saudi Arabia has come to the conclusion that they are having no real impact.

I think the Saudis are acting wisely - or at least, in the best interest of the citizens of Syria. It appears that officially sanctioned violence against Syrian citizens has been on the increase since the monitors arrived.

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Sunday January 22, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Khorramabad, a city of 328,000 in Western Iran, was the site of an assassination yesterday.

A high level army officer was shot and killed, his assistant was injured in the attack. The attackers, on a motorcycle, shot and then drove off.

Motorcycles are extremely useful tools of assassins. Cycles allow for fast escape and mobility and the assassins wear helmets with sun shields which mask their faces.

Motorcycles as a method of attack are not only extremely effective, the technique requires very little practice to perfect. Attackers can easily ditch the motorbike several blocks away, split up and escape using other prearranged vehicles.

In a professional hit the shooters are almost immediately whisked out of the country. They are through security and on a departing plane waiting in the airport within hours of the hit.

These attacks in Iran are most probably carried out by locals who go to safe houses or even resume their normal lives afterward the attacks.

To make this effective as an internal operation, the players must know only about the task they perpetrate. The group must be very small and secretive.

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Saturday January 21, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is once again showing mastery in international gamesmanship.

Iran has announced that international observers may enter their country and they have expressed willingness to talk about their nuclear program.

This action automatically throws a monkey wrench into the sanction plan of the United States. Now the countries that the US is courting to join with them in international sanctions can respond by saying: let's wait, Iran is showing a willingness to talk.

At the same time Iran is threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz.

On any given day about 30% of the world's oil travels through those narrow straits. This threat increases the price of oil and adds pressure to the oil dependent economies of Europe - it applies the crunch that makes it very difficult to think straight. With all this maneuvering emanating from Iran it stands to reason that European countries will start to wonder if acting against Iran's oil is in their individual best interest when their oil costs are going to sky rocket.Iran prepped these actions very well and they expect to see serious results.

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Friday January 20, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A group of Shiites were brutally beaten in Gaza by Sunni Hamas forces this past Friday.

Traditionally, Shia has not had a presence in Gaza but over the past few months significant numbers of young people have converted to Shia.

Iran is a predominately Shiite country. Iran has been sponsoring programs and activities in Gaza. Iran has also been directly sponsoring Hamas.

Iran has already begun to reduce their contribution to Hamas and these brutal assaults might force them to further reduce it.

Initially, Iran reduced their donations because Hamas refuse to support Assad in Syria and Iran is very pro-Assad.

With violence breaking out between Shiites and Sunnis in Gaza it is highly unlikely that there will be much more money flowing off the Iranian gravy train towards Hamas and Gaza.

That's a mixed blessing.

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Thursday January 19, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Cyber terror has taken over the headlines in Israel this past week.

What most people don't realize, however, is that, real terror has reared its head and that story has gone largely uncovered.

Yesterday a rocket was shot from northern Gaza into Israel. Thankfully, no one was injured by the attack.

As the rocket approached, an alarm was sounded - it is called "Color Red." People had 15 seconds to find safety or get into the bomb shelters. The rocket landed in the beach area in southern Ashkelon.

There is a significant problem here. These rockets are launched with the specific purpose of terrorizing those Israeli residents who live within range. They have no real direction and no real targeting mechanism. They are shot, they fly and they land.

The rockets are launched less as a tool of destruction and more as a tool of terror and intimidation. It is the fear factor that is more important to those launching the rockets than the actual harm that may be done to people or property.

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Wednesday January 18, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

It is now officially a cyber battle. Hackers against hackers.
The anti-Israeli hackers hit the Tel Aviv stock exchange yesterday as well as the website of the Israeli airline ELAL.

They also attacked Azerbaijan state sites. The hackers placed messages and images saying that the Azerbaijanians were traitors.
OxOmar, the self proclaimed Saudi hacker, joined forces with Nightmare, a hacking group that describes itself as pro-Palestinians.

These hackers want to cause Israel pain.

Now Israel must strike back. The point is not just to defend itself but actually to strike back because the reality is that given enough power and time and protection anyone can hack into anywhere.

To stop this hacking Israel must create a disincentive to breaking into their systems. They must ruin those who launched the attacks - not just destroy their current location but publicly out them and humiliate them.

Hackers need their privacy and hackers need to remain anonymous. To deny that is to destroy a hacker. It is the only way.
This is the only way.

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Tuesday January 17, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Last week's assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan continues to generate international headlines.

Yesterday the Iranian speaker of the parliament was quoted in the Iranian news as saying that several people responsible for the assassination of the Nitanz nuclear scientist, the man who headed a major division of the nuclear plant, have been arrested.

Now a British paper has released important details on the attack that had not been made public before. According to the paper the assassination took place around the corner from the safest place in Teheran - the intelligence agency headquarters, which happens to be one of Ahmadinejad's pet agencies.

The British paper also reports that just prior to the assassination there was a flurry of police action and the police were all over the area - as if they had intel about an impending attack. And yet, with apparent ease, a motorcycle with two people on it simple attached a bomb and magnet to the scientist's car and sped away undetected.

It is highly unlikely that any of the people who have been arrested have anything to do with the attack or that they can lead back to any agency who helped in the attack.

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Monday January 16, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A senior adviser to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was sentenced to a year in prison yesterday.

A reliable Iranian news website called Mashregh News reported that Ali Akbar Javanfekr, press adviser to the president, was sentenced to prison for insulting the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei .

Javanfekr will be imprisoned for one year and may not engage in any media activity for 5 years after his release.

This case is very illustrative of the nature and politics of Iran.

There should be no doubt that the Ayatollah is the Supreme Leader and everyone - even the president, must always remember that fact. Supreme Leader is one of the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei's official titles.

Iranian politics requires a sense of humility and no one, no one at all, is free to criticize anything or say whatever one desires.

Most importantly, this case clearly reiterates the rule of the land -whoever serves, does so by the grace of and with the blessings of the Supreme Leader. There is no other way.

He who forgets any of those truths will land in prison - or worse.

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January 15, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The United States, especially the White House, has spent considerable time over these past few days trying to convince Israel not to strike Iran.

The US is unclear as to whether their message will be heeded, and that is very frustrating. But honestly, that is part of the Israeli defense strategy.

Allies and enemies are not supposed to be able to predict Israel's actions, especially the timetable for those actions.

There are several reasons why Israel is being ambiguous with the United States about their Iranian attack strategy. The most critical is that Israel is not certain that the US policy of sanctions and military buildup will make Iran back down. Now that another US carrier group has entered the Persian Gulf area the US is saying that they have the situation under control, but Israel doesn't necessarily buy that.

Israel does not believe that, when the time comes, the United States will make the right call. So Israel is taking matters into their own hands and planning their own attack.

That frightens the United States - they worry that Israel is operating on a hair trigger.

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Saturday January 14, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta was quoted in the NYTIMES as saying that the United States is using back channels to tell Iran that closing the Straits of Hormuz is crossing a red line.

The message sounded extremely strong and unambiguous.
Until we heard the context.

The message said that there are two red lines that the United States will not permit Iran to cross. The first was closing the Straits of Hormuz. The second was advancing nuclear technology.
What began as an absolutely clear message ended as one of absolute ambiguity.

Iran knows full well that the US is unclear about the nuclear issue and that the United States has done nothing to aggressively curb their nuclear development other than demanding IAEA inspections.

Odds are the Iranians will recognize the US sensitivity to Hormuz and heed the warning. But they will not focus at all on the nuclear warning.

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Friday January 13, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday a Russian ship carrying 60 tons of weapons travelling to Syria was stopped and taken to Cyprus.

While in Cyprus the ship changed its itinerary and listed its new destination as Turkey. The Russian ship was released. It then turned off its GPS locater. The ship was found docked at the Syrian port of Tartus.

The ship was originally stopped because of the embargo on delivering arms to Syria. The way around was to simply change the intended destination and turn off the GPS.

Is beating the embargo that easy? Yes it is.

The question we must now ask is this: Will there be a price to pay for violating the embargo. Russia will claim that it was a private ship owned by a private company with no link to the government of Russia. That is what they will claim.

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Thursday January 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Another Iranian scientist has been killed by a bomb. The car bomb that killed this scientist is very similar to several other bombs that have been used to kill other Iranian scientists.

At first glance it makes no sense.

This victim was a professor of oil technology. Upon closer investigation it becomes clear that he was no ordinary scientist, he was the head of a division at Nitanz, the Iranian nuclear lab.

Iranian leadership is pointing the finger at Israel. The web is hopping with theories.

The wise-est guess is that the Israelis give assistance to a local group in order to kill the target. The bombs have the rudiments to be effective, but in almost each case, the bombs have been packed with too much explosive and the explosion turns – both literally and figuratively - into overkill.

Right now all we have is speculation.

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Wednesday January 11, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A closed door report was presented to the UN Security Council yesterday. The report said that 400 people have been killed in Syria since the Arab League monitors arrived several days ago.

US Ambassador Susan Rice correctly noted that the rate of deaths is significantly higher since the Arab monitors are on the scene.

Of course the Security Council attempted to censure Syria but that was stopped by China and Russia.

Why has the killing increased since the observers came to Syria? One reason is that the resistance has struck back heavily at the establishment and military and many civilian were hurt in the bombings.

One direct results of the presence of Arab monitors in Syria is that the resistance has been emboldened to take risks by attacking Syrian targets. The hope is that the established regime will not strike back as hard while observers are there.

It is unfortunate, but this scenario will cause more deaths.
Assad will continue to strike and strike even harder after he is attacked and he will claim that the resisters are terrorists who blow up civilians. Technically, he is not totally off base.

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Tuesday January 10, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad is on a four nation South American trip. First stop - Venezuela.

Chavez and Ahmadinejad had a colorful and humorous meeting and then press conference. The butt of their jokes was the Western World.
Chavez said: "That hill will open up and a big atomic bomb will come out."

"The imperialist spokesmen say ... Ahmadinejad and I are going into the Miraflores basement now to set our sights on Washington and launch cannons and missiles ... It's laughable."

The two laughed and hugged.

Ahmadinejad is there to shore up support. He knows that sanctions are going to heighten and that he will need Chavez and his support. Part of what binds these men together is their resentment towards the West.

Iran and Venezuela must create a scenario in which they are unfairly victimized by the United States. That, in turn, will set the stage for the conspiracy and the persecution themes that run through their presentations.

This is how they gain and maintain support internally and how they build alliances.

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Monday January 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a huge internal rift erupted between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

Three senior Palestinian leaders were travelling to Gaza and they were refused entry by Hamas.

The event led to shouting and one of the senior PA officials, Sakher Bseisso, shouted prolonged curses using the name of the prophet.

This did not help their case.

A Hamas spokesman said that the PA had made their choice - and that the PA seemed to be prioritizing choosing the US and Israel over Palestinian unity and their agreement.

In response Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas issued a statement that he is now revaluating the entire unity agreement between Hamas and the PA which stipulated that they were to share power and hold national elections on May 4.

The Palestinians cannot unite. Each side has too much at stake.

This is just one simple example. Hamas has agreed to become a member of the PLO and submit to Fatah leadership, but that just will not happen.

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Sunday January 9, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

We have heard about the recent military maneuvers conducted by Iran - when they shot surface to air missiles and other weapons.

Iran wanted us to hear about these military maneuvers. It is all part of an orchestrated move to exercise and flex their muscles making sure that the United States knows that the Iranians are capable of defending themselves. For internal consumption, these maneuvers were an important symbol of Iranian pride, telling the Iranians and their military that they have the weapons to repel any US aggression.

But even more interesting than their PR agendas is the military message the Iranians are also sending. These military exercises took place on the Iranian border with Afghanistan.

And then today another set of maneuvers took place not 40 miles from Afghanistan. This is Iran's way of sending a very strong message to those on the Afghani side of the border. The military message to the tribes was --- do not cross without permission.

Iran is in control of its border. Iran is totally out of control. That is not a contradiction, it is the Iranian way.

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Saturday January 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey is returning their ambassador to Paris. He will be back in the embassy as of first thing Monday morning.

Last month Turkey withdrew the ambassador after the French parliament began debating a law to make it illegal to deny the genocide of the Armenians at the hands of the Ottomans in 1915. A fine of 45,000 Euros is part of the proposal.

This entire exchange shows how immature Turkey has become in the world of international diplomacy.

In the first 10 months of 2011,Turkish bi-national trade equaled $14 billion. France is Turkey's fifth largest export market and its 6th largest import source.

Pulling the ambassador was, simply put, a major mistake. Recalling their ambassador achieved nothing diplomatically and sent no message to France and taught the French absolutely nothing.

All it did was showcase Turkish leadership as immature and vindictive.

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Friday January 6, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday was the most bloody day in Iraq since the United States officially pulled out in December.

A series of coordinated bombings rocked Iraq. At least 72 Shiites were killed and many more were injured.

On one side of the country, pilgrims on their way to the Shiite holy city of Karabla were attacked by a suicide bomber. Others were killed and injured as roadside bombs exploded. One unexploded bomb was found. All the targets were Shiite pilgrims.

At the very same time, in the northern part of Baghdad, in the almost exclusively Shiite neighborhood of Kazimiyeh, another series of explosions rocked the neighborhood.

These attacks are picture perfect examples of al Qaeda attacks against Shiites.

The internal conflict between Shiites and Sunnis will continue to foment. Al Qaeda wants to take advantage of this conflict and will continue to pound away at Shiite targets in Iraq.

To people who support al Qaeda, the Shiites represent heretics and they must be killed.

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Wednesday January 4, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's monetary currency, the Riyal, has plummeted 12% since Sunday.

On Saturday President Obama signed new sanctions against Iranian banks. Many Western observers are saying that free fall is due to those sanctions. Of course, the Iranians disagree.

The value of the Iranian Riyal, like other world currencies, is evaluated based on purchase power. If that power weakens the value of the currency falls.

There are several factors that make up that value. One of the factors is psychological. If people feel that there is a strong economy and stable government, the currency value grows. But if the economy is weakened or if there are attacks against the country's infrastructure, the currency's value drops.

The US boycott affects not only Iranian banks, it also effects anyone doing business with Iranian banks.

Bottom line: the Riyal only fell 12% - I am certain that those advising the president were hoping for a 25% fall in value.

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Tuesday January 3, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

A group of anonymous Saudi computer hackers claim that they have hacked Israeli credit cards and posted 400,000 of them on line. They say that the personal information of 400,000 Israelis through their credit cards, including expiration dates, are now public.

The hackers hope to create mass hysteria in Israel and have 400,000 people storm their bank's headquarters.

Upon closer investigation, a student of math and computers at the well respected Israeli university called Technion said the hacker's claim is mostly bogus.

Ofer Schwartz says that the hack was really only of 18,000 cards and that the same details were repeated over and over to come to 400,000 entries.

This entire story raises an important issue about credibility and hackers reports. Very often in the hacker world stories are embellished and hackers hyperbolize. The story becomes bigger in order to make a bigger impact. But even in the hacker world there are people who try to set the record straight and keep people honest.
18,000 is a bad hack and should never have happened. But it is not 400,000.

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Monday January 2, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Rick Santorum announced that unless they let International Observers into their nuclear facilities, he would bomb Iran's nuclear sites.

The Republican nominee wannabe described the current US position developed by President Obama as one of turning the United States "into paper tigers."

The statement is POPULIST. We are seeing more and more of this populist jargon as the Republican primary and the presidential campaign chug along.

Populism has its great benefits. Populism is an attempt to emote a folksy political point of view. Populism represents the masses against the detached leadership.

Then again, populist political platforms almost always oversimplify to the point of being dangerous - and yet, populist points always sway voters, they fuel the momentum which brings voters to a candidate.

Rick Santorum is correct to push for action because he will get support. Where his populism fails is that bombing the nuclear sites does not solve the problem - it opens up a series of other, very complicated, problems.

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Sunday January 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Arabic newspaper Al Hayat which is headquartered in London is the pulse of much of what happens in the Arabic world. Al Hayat ran an interview with Rashad Bayoumi the #2 person in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood.

The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is leading in the elections for parliament. Together with the Nouri party, another extremist Muslim party, the extremists can already claim about 75% of the seats in the parliament.

Bayoumi said that the Muslim Brotherhood will never recognize Israel and will never sit with Israel. He said that they will "ask the people" i.e. call for a referendum, about the treaty.

In response to the question of the Brotherhood's adhering to international treaties which they claimed they would do, Bayoumi said that the Brotherhood did not sign the treaty with Israel and that he does not see it as binding.

"We are allowed to ask the people or the elected parliament to express their opinion on the treaty, and (to find out) whether it compromised the people's freedom and sovereignty ... The people will express their opinion on the matter."

Bayoumi continued by saying that "each side has the right to re-examine the treaty."

This does not bode well for the region or for US interests.

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Saturday December 31, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There are riots in Southern Egypt. Christians are getting beaten and church property is being destroyed.

The riots began because an image of the Prophet Mohamed was posted on the Facebook page of a 17 year old Christian student. The student, Gama Massoud, has been arrested for creating an image of the Prophet.
The student denies that he did it. Massoud claims that someone else posted the image on his page.

The significance of these events is gargantuan. Look at what happened: Because an image was posted on Facebook there were two days of violence - riots, beatings and burnings. Someone was arrested for posting an imagined picture of Mohammed and he claims that his friends did it as a practical joke and that lands him in prison. People can die in these riots.

We in the West blithely assume that Egypt is making the trek along the road to democracy. This does not look anything like the democracy we know.

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Friday December 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Remember Stuxnet and DUQU? They were 2 of the worms that have attacked Iranian nuclear installations and computer systems.

Yesterday the Russian anti-virus company names Kaspersky gave even more insight in to the worms. They confirmed that the worms were related. This is what I have said since the end of October when DUQU arrived on the scene.

But most importantly Kaspersky says that there are five more worms. They called them cousins.

My contacts explain that more worms like Stuxnet were inevitable. The principle behind the worm is to attack Iran. Not to attack once but to constantly attack. And each attach sets the stage for another future attack.

There are two reasons why there must be more Stuxnet worms:

The worms cost too much money to develop and as such they need a complete set of them.

A single attack would never be significant enough to ultimately ruin the Iranian nuclear system.

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Thursday December 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The US Congress agreed to free $40 million of aid and give it to the Palestinians. This is 20% of the $187 million that was frozen by Congress after the Palestinians began their move for statehood which put them in the Congressional doghouse.

The Obama administration has been pushing to free up aid saying that the money will help stabilize the Palestinian areas.

The Administration also claims that Israel is in favor of freeing the aid money.

All along the Palestinians knew that the US could not withhold the aid. And unfortunately, they were correct.

If the aid goes through, the Palestinians will be made to suffer no consequences for publically and internationally humiliating the United States.

And the Palestinians continue to act against US interests and still ask for more money. Now they are pursuing a plan of unity with Hamas. That can only end in one way - in anti-Western and anti-US actions.

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Wednesday December 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz if more sanctions are levied on them by the West. The Straits are a narrow water way through which about 30% of the world's oil travels on any given day.

Iran's first Vice President Mohammad Raza Rahimi was quoted in IRNA yesterday saying "If they (the West) imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz."

Much of the Straits are in the territorial water's of Iran. Until now Iran has permitted the international community to use the Straits as if they were international waters - but that is only by their grace. That fact seems to have eluded the United States and most other Western countries in their bid to apply sanctions against Iran.

It is in the vital interests of the United States to keep those Straits open. But at any time the Iranians can legally shut the Straits down. Iran will probably make this argument in advance in order to totally disarm any potential attack against them.

In addition the Iranians have just announced that they will seek the death penalty for an America caught and being tried as a spy.

Bundling these issues demonstrates how Iran is planning to utilize
pressure to achieve their diplomatic goals. Once again, the Iranians are very good at what they do.

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Tuesday December 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran and Afghanistan have just signed a gasoline and jet fuel deal that will begin next week.

According to the deal, Iran promises to provide 1 million tons of gasoline and jet fuel to Afghanistan.

This agreement is very significant - it proves what I have been saying for at least 18 months: Iran is not suffering from sanctions.

Common knowledge was that Iran produced oil, but still needed to import 45% of its gasoline. That number was then reduced to 30%.

And now Iran exports oil. Iran refines oil and has plenty left over to sell.

Those who thought that sanctions would cripple Iran because they did not have gas were simply wrong. The sanctions motivated Iran. They updated and built new refineries. And because Afghanistan borders
Iran it will be easy to transport the gasoline.

Once again, proof of just how good Iran is at playing this game.

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Monday December 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli and US leadership are asking the big question.

Western European leaders are asking the same thing.

Speaking about peace is one thing - but what about actions?

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has been speaking about peace but at the same time that his lips are moving, his arms are hugging freed terrorists and making deals with Hamas.

Serious thinkers and conscientious leaders want to know what Abbas really wants to accomplish. They are beginning to say that Abbas cannot have it both ways.

Is Abbas influencing Hamas or is Hamas going to influence Abbas?
Any unity government, in fact, any agreement of any type with Hamas is dangerous. And now there is a PA/Hamas agreement that has not yet been made public.

Hamas is sworn to the destruction of Israel. It is highly unlikely that Hamas leaders will change their charter even if, for the short term, they agree to a cease fire and not attack Israel.

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Sunday December 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Christmas Day 5 explosions rocked Nigeria. At least 25 people were killed.

The explosions were attacks on churches. They were attacks on Christians celebrating Christmas.

The attacks were coordinated. The goal was to intimidate Christians. The group called Boko Haram almost certainly perpetrated these murderous bombings.

Let me give you a sense of the philosophy of the group: The name Boko Haram means "Western education is sacrilege" or "Western philosophy is a sin."

Boko Haram is a Muslim group and they want total Islamic control over all aspects of life in Nigeria. There is nothing more threatening to them than other religious points of view - and Christianity means Western culture.

Boko Haram attacks show a continued increase in sophistication and planning. Their attacks are becoming more and more deadly and more and more, they are targeting specific symbols of Western values.

I am shocked that the response to these attacks has been so muted.

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Saturday December 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There was a true diplomatic scuffle between France and Turkey.
As of Now Turkey has recalled their ambassador from Paris and they do not plan on having him return.

It happened as a result of a bill, passed in the French Parliament, making it illegal to deny genocide - specifically the genocide of the Armenians which took place at the close of WW I at the hands of the Turks.

The Turks have called the bill racist and will not even posit a public argument to debate the issue.

French diplomats have asked Turkey to discuss the matter, suggesting that pulling an ambassador is a very serious diplomatic act.

The French are suggesting that there are other, better methods of resolving differences.

Observers are not placing bets on a reconciliation, they see this diplomatic posturing as indicative of the new Turkey.

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Friday December 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas met with Hamas Politburo Chief Haled Mashaal. The meet was held in Cairo, Egypt.

Hamas agreed in principle to join the PLO, the political party of the PA. And then they decided to set up a series of committees - including an election committee to plan the next election for the PA.

This is a huge step.

It is hard to say whether it is a positive or a negative step, but it is a step.

Hamas has never recognized the PA government because Hamas won the plurality in the last election but then never had an opportunity to govern because Abbas ousted Hamas and their prime minister. That led to Hamas throwing the PLO and booting the PA out of Gaza in a bloody coup.

Since then Hamas and the PA have not been able to agree on power sharing.

Because Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have come together it does not necessarily follow that Hamas will not run in the election.
The PLO is by definition an umbrella for many Palestinian organizations. What it means is Hamas is confident that if they do run, they will once again win the plurality.

These are not the Republicans and the Democrats - they are and will always be the PA and Hamas.

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Thursday December 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian leader Bashar Assad has refused to meet with Hamas leader Haled Mashaal.

This tension is not new.

It began several months ago when Hamas called for reforms in Syria.

Since then Hamas has been asked to leave Syria.

Hamas had found digs elsewhere.

Hamas' main offices are now in Jordan, with some other facilities in Qatar.

Jordan granted Hamas safety under one condition: absolutely no operations be initiated from Jordan - that means no planning and no execution of operations.

Mashaal accepted the conditions and moved almost the entire Hamas bureaucracy base to Amman. But because they also need an operations center, the Qatar office was opened.

Should Israel discover that Hamas operations were being executed out of Jordan, that would be casus belli which means an incident of war and hence - a reason for war. If that were to happen it could and it would legally permit Israel the right to strike Hamas operation centers in Jordan.

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Wednesday December 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just decided to move 90%of all their websites - into Iran. Until now they were hosted by private servers and companies outside Iran.

The Iranians believe that this will render their websites more difficult to hack and make them impenetrable.

Of course, the opposite is true.

Until now the Iranians blamed the hosts for the hacks. The reality is that the hackers were very, very good at what they did. There is only so much a host can do when the hackers are dedicated and relentless.

Bringing the websites to Iran is a problem. Iran has neither the people nor the technology to defend their websites, to constantly update and to fend off attacks.

This decision will only make Iran's websites easier to hack and allow hackers better access to Iran.

For everyone outside Iran, that's good news.

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Tuesday December 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In Syria yesterday 60 to 70 deserters were gunned down as they were running away from their posts.

This is the first situation in Syria where so many soldiers deserted at a single time. In order to make certain that the soldiers did not escape, machine guns were used to shoot them dead.

Until now desertion has not been a serious issue Syria.

This incident can go both ways.

It can intimidate other soldiers not to desert out of fear of being executed.

Or it could move more soldiers to plot a clean escape out of an oppressive military environment.

This shooting is extremely telling. Syrians are running away and other Syrians think nothing of shooting to kill.

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Monday December 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Last week the second set of elections took place in Egypt. Nine more provinces went to the polls to vote for the Egyptian Parliament which is composed of 498 representatives.

Once again the two largest Muslim extremist parties, the Muslim Brotherhood Freedom and Justice party and the Salafi al- Nour party, garnered a large majority of the vote. This time they came home with 75% of the vote, gaining even more votes in the second set of elections than extremist parties did three weeks ago when the first nine provinces went to the polls.

This time the FJP (Freedom and Justice Party) received 40% of the vote and the Salafi al-Nour party received 35%.

In the previous election the Nour party received 24% and the Muslim Brotherhood garnered 37%.

The next set of provinces is scheduled to vote in January.

None of this should surprise anyone. The first set of elections took place in more urban centers, the second set in rural provinces. The rule is that: the more urban the more likely to vote non-extremist, the more rural the more likely to vote for the extremists.

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Sunday December 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Once again the gas pipelines in the Sinai desert of Egypt have been attacked by terrorists.

This is the 10th time in the recent past that attempts have been made to explode the pipe lines - and it will not be the last time. The terrorists want to disrupt the flow of natural gas to Israel. They want to hurt Israel.

Problem is, the terrorists still don't get it.

Israel has been weaning itself from Egyptian natural gas. They are far less dependent than they once were. Jordan, however, is still nearly 90% dependent on Egyptian natural gas. The terrorist plan to hurt the Jewish State actually ends up crippling an Arab state instead.

What is most strange is that these pipelines are supposed to be guarded by the Egyptian army. The army has simply been sound asleep on the job. By virtue of their silence, the Egyptian army is sending a signal to the terrorists that it is all right to continue their attacks on the gas pipelines of Sinai.

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Saturday December 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier this week US Ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson, together with US Senator and Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee John Kerry, met with representative from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

This is no small feat.

This is the first time any official meetings have taken place at this high a level. In diplomatic speak, the ambassador is called a senior government official. The chairman is referred to as an influential political leader or politician.

The meeting was a shift in US policy. It was a move away from isolating the Muslim Brotherhood towards acknowledging them as a major player in the new Egypt.

Here is the problem: The Muslim Brotherhood is not democratic and should never have been permitted to stand for election in the first place. But they did.

So now, because they are such a significant power, the United States has begun to court them. For their part, the Brotherhood has not shown any reciprocal interest.

We need to wait and see. The Muslim Brotherhood sometimes surprises us.

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Friday December 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The top secret US Bat Drone that the Iranians now possess - and are in the process of reverse engineering, was, according to a report in the Christian Science Monitor, hacked and hijacked.

The logic works. The huge question was this: how could the drone, which was being displayed on Iranian TV, be in such good condition. There were no signs of damage which would make no sense at all if it fell from the air or was shot down.
Now we have the answer.

The report which is based on Iranian sources says that Iran hacked the control system of the drone and took advantage of it while it was in between GPS connections. Evidently the Iranians knew that there were GPS gaps in the drone's link to it handlers and that during that time, the drone was vulnerable.

Iranian hackers tricked the drone into landing, making it think that it was returning to Afghanistan. This information was gleaned from other downed US drones.

The entire episode is an embarrassment to the United States. It is the beginning of a dangerous and unfortunate new reality. Iran has some of the US's latest technology. And the United States just handed it over to them. The only thing missing was a big bow.

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Thursday December 15, 2011
I've Been Thinking:

Now, a week later, it is obvious that the Iranians are in possession of a US Bat Drone. Both the president and the secretary of state of the United States have asked the Iranians to please give it back. The answer was a resounding NO!

The Iranians want to reverse engineer the drone. According to Iranian press reports the Chinese, the Russian and the North Koreans have all called and asked to see the drone.

I do not understand why the US did not outfit the drone with a kill switch. That drone should have been destroyed as soon as it went out of US control.

Each drone should be outfitted with a switch that either destroys everything inside or a self destruct mechanism that fries the entire mechanism. These are built specifically to prevent reverse engineering.

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Wednesday December 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Iranian Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi met with Saudi Intelligence Minster Prince Nayef.

This was indeed a very unusual meeting.

This was the first interaction between Iran and Saudi Arabia since the United States accused Iran of plotting to murder the Saudi ambassador to Washington, DC.

There is no question that tensions are running high between these two polar opposites countries. The agenda of this tete a tete was almost certainly to smooth over the terrible animosity that has emerged the countries.

I was not a fly on that wall, but I can say with the wisdom gained from years of studying and analyzing these countries and the region, that the Iranians did not apologize but rather - came with an explanation.

They probably said that yes, these were former Iranians plotting the assassination, but that the members of the cell caught by the United States were rogues and amateurs. That it had nothing to do with Iranian's real leadership. That Iran would not jeopardize the stability of the region by plotting such an assassination.
And Saudi Arabia, I believe, walked away satisfied.

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Tuesday December 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel launched their Amos 5 satellite from somewhere in Kazakhstan.

The Amos 5 is the newest and most sophisticated satellite that Israel has launched. It can and will serve as a communications hub for all of Israel's interactions. It will also be used to transmit and relate the clearest of all images from around the globe.

Israel's satellite systems are enormously important tools in protecting Israel. They gather information and enable Israel to observe and interpret the actions of both friends and foes.

Satellites also permit Israel to trade information and intelligence with the United States and other world powers.

Because of their state of the art satellites, Israel is a player in world intelligence.

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Monday December 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The acting temporary prime minister of Egypt broke down in tears while speaking to the press yesterday.

Kamal el Ganzouri is the third person to hold the position of temporary prime minister in Egypt since February, when Hosni Mubarak was ousted.

Ganzouri cried as he described the economic situation in Egypt. He said that the Egyptian economy is worse than anyone can imagine. He said that the state of tourism is horrific and that crime is rampant.

Seldom have I ever witnessed a tearful Arab leader. Certainly I have never seen an emotional display of this sort in public and not ever when discussing the economy.

It will be interesting to see how the Egyptians and other Arabs interpret this act. Will they describe it as an act of weakness or will they describe it as pathos.

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Sunday December 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Two weeks ago a huge explosion was heard in Isfahan, the third largest city in Iran.

The explosion came from a factory that refined yellow cake also known as urania. The blast was reported on Iranian websites - but then quickly taken down.

Now there are intelligence satellite pictures that show bulldozers at work clearing rubble and destroying buildings in the factory compound.

The pictures in and of themselves do not say anything - but they allow so to make inferences as to what truly happened as a result of that blast.

We can infer that the factory was badly damaged by the explosion and we can infer that Iranian decision makers are either knocking down the building in order to rebuild it, or in order to eliminate evidence of any explosion.

Any way you look at it, it is clear that Iran's nuclear program was damaged. The extent of that damage is harder to assess.

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Friday December 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There is only one way to topple Bashar Assad of Syria. There needs to be a massive armed uprising.

And the Syrians are so far from making that happen.

True, a massive armed uprising would mean an enormously high number of deaths on the side of the resisters - but it is the only way. A simple, small uprising would only make matters and the lives of Syrians worse.

As of now Assad has the army behind him and very few military have defected from the army. Those who have defected are not from elite units and do not have great training. If they have weapons they are small and have limited ammo.

A massive uprising would require mass defections from the army, but that is not happening because everyone had the feeling that whatever they do, it will be useless. Assad is strong and Assad is ruthless.

The uprising I am talking about will need outside aid with weapons. But until there is a united voice for the opposition within Syria, outside sources of help cannot and will not help them.

Even when they try to act like opposition resistance forces, they get it wrong. The two major resistance groups in Syria decided to restrict their attacks against Assad's forces and instead, only defend the demonstrators.

That is a step backwards for regime change.

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Thursday December 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Muslim Brotherhood claimed electoral victory yesterday in the second round of elections in Egypt. This past Monday and Tuesday there was a two day run off for 45 individual seats. These seats are not connected to the party - the people ran on their own.

The Muslim Brotherhood claims to have won 34 of the 45 individual seats.

This segment of the election was held in 9 of the most urban of provinces in Egypt. If their claim is proven correct and this trend continues that will mean the Muslim Brotherhood will control nearly 75% of the 498 seats up for election in the Egyptian parliament.
These results should be truly worrying for the West and there is nothing we can do about it.

Once again the West's push for democrat elections in an Arab country results in Islamic extremists rising to power and control.

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Wednesday December 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The United States returned its ambassador to Syria last night.

Ambassador Ford had been recalled for a combination of reasons. One reason was for his personal safety. The other was that the White House was sending a message to Syrian President Assad.

There was good intel that the US ambassador to Syria was becoming a target. For his safety they brought him back. In response, Syria withdrew its own ambassador from DC.

Now the question is: why would the US return Ambassador Ford?

The official reason is to help make certain US interests are served. But France is also returning its ambassador. France and Italy are the two European countries who withdrew their ambassadors in the first place.

When the United States and France return their ambassadors to Syria, you can bet there is a very important back story. So what's the real, not official reason? The US and France want and need trusted observers and diplomats on the ground in Syria.

It is a shame.

Saudi Arabia is not for a moment thinking of returning its ambassador.

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Tuesday December 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iranians in the capital city of Teheran live in fear of an air strike that might happen at any time, on any day.

Since last week's raids on the two British embassy compounds in Teheran, Iranians are almost certain that retaliation will come in the form of an air strike.

Citizens have been stockpiling food and necessities. Foreigners have been pouring out of the country and the international schools have all closed. The French international school, which is located on the British Embassy compound, watched as the mobs attacked the embassy. They have since closed. The German school located nearby has closed and the British school - which is not located on the compound, has also been closed.

Iranians see all the closings as forebodings, they take is as a sign of a Western attack.

Actually, the schools closed to protect the students. Just like the British embassy these schools are Western institutions. They are very public and easy targets. The rioters and extremists could easily attack them.

Until the tone changes and tensions and calm are restored, the schools will remain closed and the people of Teheran will remain fearful.

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December 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

My sources are telling me that Iran has, with almost certainty, come to the conclusion that the huge explosion that rocked the Algahdir missile base on November 12th, the explosion that killed 36 people including the head of the Iranian missile program - was caused by a worm.

The Iranians are now seriously trying to determine if the explosion was caused by either the Stuxnet or the DUQU virus.

If they are correct, it means that their systems are still seriously infected. It means that the Iranian missiles, the main weapon in any attack by Iran on Western targets or on Israel, are out of commission. It means that the Shahab 3 and the Sejil 2 are now useless.

People say that it will take Iran two to three months to clean their systems of the viruses. My tech people do not believe that to be the case. They say that there is really no way to clean these worms from your system. The virus becomes dormant and is not detected - but it has not gone away. Actually, it creates a false trail suggesting that your defense has detected and removed the virus while in reality, it is still deeply embedded in your system.

If the Iranians are correct, their entire missile system is in jeopardy. And that is good news for the West.

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Saturday December 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

As the rhetoric continues to escalate in Iran about a potential strike and then their counter strike, we need to pay careful attention to what is being said and who is saying it.

Iranian Defense Minister Ahamed Vahidi was quoted recently saying: "Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan, if the Americans make the mistake and attack Iran, we will show them how to fight."

The Defense Minister continued: "Israel has to be punished for what it has done to the Muslims in Palestine and Lebanon."

Vahidi said all this in front of 50,000 volunteer recruits to the Revolutionary Guard and concluded his remarks by saying that if Israel attacks Iran they will be hit by 150,000 missiles.

Iran does not have 150,000 rockets that have the range to hit Israel -- they have many fewer. But the minister was making a rhetorical point. He was preaching to the converted, he was egging them on.

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Friday December 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is torquing up the tensions and really applying the rhetoric.

Iranian military leader Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Revolutionary Guards' Division of Aerospace, recently said that Iran will target the NATO missile defense shield in Turkey if the United States or Israel attacks the Islamic Republic.

The Iranian general was quoted by the semi-official Mehr news agency as saying that this warning is part of a new defense strategy to counter what Iran sees as an increase in threats from the United States and Israel.

In other words, Iran is giving notice that they will strike at US bases and their ally's bases.

The threats are increasing and they are real - but this is also about politics, US politics. Republican candidates, in debate after televised debate, keep spouting on about Iran without any real sense of the ramifications of their words.

Iran is responding in kind.

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Thursday December 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Several weeks ago there was a massive explosion that rocked a missile base just outside of Teheran. 18 people were killed. One of those killed was General Hassan Teherani Moqaddam, head of the missile program.

It is still unclear what caused the explosion. Some have said it was the Mossad, others have said that it was insurgents and anti-government underground forces. The government has been asserting that the explosion was an accident.

The explosion could have been caused by any or all of those reasons. Add to that the computer virus that has badly infected Iranian Siemens systems and there is another possible cause.

What is fascinating me right now is a Basij website that reported that the general's last will and testament said that he wants his tombstone to say "the person buried here wanted to destroy Israel."

For General Moqaddam, as for many leaders in the Iranian regime - and not only religious leaders as many people mistakenly believe, destroying Israel is a primary life objective.

That is mind boggling. That is insight into the Iranian mind.

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Wednesday December 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has decided to send its only aircraft carrier, named Admiral Kuznetzov, to join a flotilla of war ships to Syria.

The Russians have built a multi-billion dollar navy base in Tartus, Syria. Tartus will be the new base of operations for the entire Russian presence in Middle East, especially for its submarine force.

Tartus is just north of Lebanon and a stone's throw from Turkey. It is practically next to Israel. And it is the second largest port of Syria.

Moving its aircraft carrier - its only aircraft carrier to Syria, makes a very strong statement.

This move says that Russia is going to support Syria on the ground and in the arena - not just in the United Nations Security Council where they continue to veto sanctions and any action against the Syrians.

Russia has too much to lose if Assad falls. That is why the Russians are doing their best to bolster Syria and secure the position of Bashar Assad.

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Tuesday November 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

A huge explosion occurred in the Iranian city of Isfahan at 2:40 in the afternoon local time yesterday. According to FARS, the official Iranian news agency, the explosion took place in their uranium enrichment plant.

Soon after the piece was posted on FARS, it was removed. All the other official news sites in Iran quoted officials saying that no such explosion had occurred.

The Isfahan plant enriches uranium. It makes urania which is popularly known as Yellowcake. The Yellowcake is transformed into UF6 Gas which is the shortened form of Uranium Hexafuoride Gas. After the UF6 Gas is produced it is shipped to Natanz and Qom.

The explosion did take place and it did a great amount of damage. It resembles the explosion that happened two weeks ago outside of Teheran at the Revolutionary Guard's missile base.
In that explosion 18 people were killed including the general in charge of the missile program.

Isfahan is Iran's third largest city. People know about the uranium conversion plant - it is located too close to the city for people not to hear and know what happened.

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Monday November 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Elections will be held in Egypt tomorrow and Tuesday. This is the beginning of a long, extended, election for the lower parliament which does not conclude until January.

There is an array of parties and the entire election process is unclear. There will certainly be bullying and corruption. There will be no international observers.

The follow up, the upper parliament and presidential election, is scheduled for the end of June.

Field Marshall Tantawi, head of the Supreme Military Council, has begged people to come out and vote. The problem is that when there is crisis, those who do vote - vote for the extremes.

Because there has been almost no education about the parties running for election and no education about the voting process - very few Egyptians will ultimately come out to vote. They do not know where to go and have no idea of when to vote or how the votes will be tallied.

Egypt has no single independent body watching the process. It is a recipe for corruption and for extremism.

This is electoral anarchy. That is the worst kind of elections.
Just wait and see.

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Sunday November 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Morocco held an election on Saturday and The Party for Justice and Development (PJD) won the plurality. That means it won more votes than any other party, but not a majority. Now they need to form a coalition in order to rule.

There are about 33 million people in Morocco. 13 million are registered to vote and 45% of that group actually voted. In other words, about 6 million came out to the polls.

The PJD is an Islamic party. In all likelihood they will join with the left wing socialist party and two other parties in the current ruling coalition.

Bottom line: those who voted the Islamic line hoping for an Islamic state, will be disappointed.

For Moroccans in general the results of this election mean that there is virtually no chance to solve their country's 30 % unemployment and their huge deficit. It means that the 8.5 million Moroccans, 25% of the country, now living in abject poverty will continue to live in abject poverty.

Morocco now joins Tunisia as the second Muslim country to elect an Islamic plurality. These elections do not portend well for change. At best, there will be no impact on the lives of the voters, at worst - well, let's just hope for the best.

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Saturday November 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday in Cairo, Egypt there was a rally attended by about 8,000 people.

The one verse quoted from the Koran, repeated over and over, by speaker after speaker, was this: "We will kill all the Jews."

One speaker said that the reason the US is losing in Afghanistan is because Muslims are willing to die for their cause. He said that: "Muslims have a different mentality."

Speakers referred to freeing Tel Aviv.

Speakers spoke about Jerusalem and how Muslim holy sites are being Juda-ized.

Speakers called on Muslims to unite and defend themselves against the Zionists and the United States.

The theme was: unite against the common enemy - Jews, Israel and the West.

The speaker who said Muslims have a different mentality was right. These rallies are deserving of more coverage in the mainstream Western press. The Western world needs to know what is going on, needs to understand how much the Muslim world hates us.

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Friday November 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Sanctions are the kind of thing Westerners understand. They are one of the only tools that can have an impact and that can help convince oppressive regimes to change.

Sometimes they work - sometimes they have the opposite effect.
Syria is the perfect example.

The EU has stepped up their sanctions on Syria. Heating oil, specifically, is not to be exported to Syria.

So who gets hurt by the lack of heating oil in Syria? The very people who want to oust Assad. Assad is not hurt at all, he has plenty of heating oil and he makes certain that those loyal to him have heat.

There was a delivery of heating oil to Syria on Wednesday by AOT, a Swiss company. Unfortunately, they are the only ones who understand what is really happening.

If ousting Assad is a priority, the actions applied should place pressure on Assad, not on those we are trying to support and to protect.

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Wednesday November 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Israeli army is preparing for a major offensive in Gaza.

The division that will be primary in the operation is the engineering corps. Right now the army is trying to understand the TUNNELS.

It was through the use of tunnels that Hamas was able to capture and hold Gilad Shalit. In the eyes of the Israeli army, it is the tunnels that will be the key to any future offensive against Hamas.

One of the things the engineering corps is investigating is how effective their D-9 bulldozers are. They are determining how far can the bulldozers can go inside Gaza and how deep they can dig.

These are humongous vehicles. These are intimidating machines with great strength. They can destroy any structure above or below the ground. But they have to know where to go to be effective.

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November 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Presidential Debate on Foreign Policy & National Security

*It should be clear that foreign policy is enormously important to the task of the president --- but it is not foreign policy that influences voters. Very few people say I support this candidate because of his/her foreign policy POV.

*Foreign policy segues into national security. Threats against the US and against US interests begin abroad. Those threats need to be understood - they are what stimulates terror and threatens the homefront.

* Several of the candidates make the debates interesting - but they are not real candidates. Ron Paul is one such candidate. He articulated libertarian ideas which are growing in popularity, but are wrong vis a vis for example, the Middle East. Rick Perry is another such candidate - his no fly zone over Syria is "way out there" it makes no sense and shows a lack of understanding of the way international decisions are made.

All the candidates did well - there were no major gaffs which also means that there were no memorable moments.

Each candidate is really only dealing in theory. These threats against the US are truly overwhelming and will only be actually understood after the first security briefing.

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Tuesday November 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Monday was a bloody day in Egypt.
At least 33 people were killed in clashes between the army and protesters.

As a direct result of the violence, the entire Egyptian cabinet submitted its resignation to the Supreme Military Council later that day.

The Council accepted their resignations.

This is all happening during the week that the first stage of Egyptian parliamentary elections is to take place.

There is very little chance that the election will be democratic and even less chance that Egypt will usher out the Supreme Military Council.

The army rules in Egypt and I expect they will continue to rule in the near future.

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Sunday November 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Newly released documents show just what Henry Kissinger thought about American Jewish leadership. It is not flattering.

Quotes from 1972 tell of Kissinger talking to Nixon aide Leonard Garment, who is also Jewish. In one exchange Kissinger asks, "Is there a more self-serving group of people than the Jewish community?" Garment, answers "None in the world."

Then Kissinger expounds on his earlier point "What the hell do they think they are accomplishing? You can't even tell bastards anything in confidence because they'll leak it."

I cannot say that I am surprised, but this does not make me feel comfortable. What is most deplorable to me is that Henry Kissinger has made millions of dollars speaking to Jews and advising Jewish groups - and the Jewish community has always taken pride in his accomplishments and showered Kissinger with respect.

Given these statements I do not think this self-hating Jew deserves such respect.

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Saturday November 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Friday is the Sabbath in the Islamic world. It is the perfect time for protests and rallies.

Yesterday, in Tahrir Square, 10's of thousands of Egyptians gathered to shout out against their military government. The main organizers and the main groups that attended the rally were religious groups - principally the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Supreme Military Council is the body that has been in charge of Egypt since Mubarak stepped down. Some people do not think that the Military will step aside - even after any elections.

Egyptian elections are slated for November 25th. But they are not final elections, they are the first of a series of elections that will be dragging out over months.

The people who came to the square to protest are expressing their anger.

Signs read: "Down with the Military." "We are not an Army Camp." "The Koran is our Constitution."

This last one is important. The draft of the new constitution contains an article giving the military council the power to supersede elected president.

This is the country that the Western world, specifically the United States, is hoping will turn into a democracy.

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Friday November 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The IAEA now has a plan for Iran. They want to create a mission. That's UN terminology for an onsite study.

Last week the IAEA issued a scathing report on Iran. You would think that the IAEA would now take some real action, especially after 15 years of walking on a tightrope with Iran.

But no ... the IAEA once again lives up to their tradition.

In response to their own damning report, the IAEA geared up, took a deep breath and asked Iran for permission to visit their nuclear facilities and inspect them again.

I ask you: What is the IAEA really there for?

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Thursday November 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Syria's opposition is beginning to strike at Syrian military targets.
For the first time in eight months the handful of army deserters that now form the opposition are using their training, their weapons and their knowledge to hit Syrian army targets.

At 2:30AM, in the dark of night, a major military target on the edge of Damascus was attacked by shoulder mounted rockets and machine gun fire. At least six soldiers were killed and over twenty were wounded.

The opposition targeted an air force intelligence center. In Syria, the army and air force intelligence agencies are responsible for tracking and finding deserters.

This attack is a watershed, it was well planned and executed.

Attacks like prove to the Syrian that the balance can shift. Attacks like this one would be proof that Assad and his forces are vulnerable and even beatable.

These attacks can move the opposition up a notch, propelling them from the protest stage to actual conflict.

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Tuesday November 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestine Prime Minister Salam Fayyad gave an interview to al Quds, an official Palestinian media outlet, yesterday.

In the interview Fayyad asserted that unity between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority is a major objective and is an essential ingredient in moving ahead and gaining statehood. He referred to statehood as the "Palestinian dream."

He said: let there be a new prime minister.

Fayyad was never elected, instead, he was appointed by President Abbas in a move to oust Hamas from political power.

For Hamas, Fayyad is the symbol of the political power that was stolen from them by the Palestinian Authority.

Hamas has never accepted Fayyad as prime minister and it is no secret to anyone - including Fayyad, that in order to have any unity between Hamas and the PA, Fayyad must step aside.

The problem is that Fayyad is one of the only people in the Palestinian government who understands how a government should work and he is actively working for reforming in order to achieve some sense of government accountability and responsibility.

This is a Palestinian Catch - 22.

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Monday November 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The virus struck again.

Iran has been hit once again by a computer virus. This virus, which is very similar to the Stuxnet, is called DUQU.

Iran admitted that they have been hit and are saying that it is now under control.

Symantec (Norton) identified the worm on October 19th. It is hard to imagine that Iran managed to get it under control so quickly.

The DUQU virus attacks Windows fonts systems, it also gathers information and intel for further attacks. The virus has already been indentified in 12 countries - but the hacker community buzz is 100% certain that the target was Iran.

The name DUQU comes from the prefix of the file it creates. It looks like this ~DQ.

Stuxnet specifically attacked Siemens systems. Siemens controls water, electricity, gas, oil and of course, nuclear technology.

It is highly unlikely that Iran has either of these worms under control. The only way to know for sure is to actually use the weapons system.

DUQU is a major setback for Iran - and that is good news for the rest of the world.

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Sunday November 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The internet is lit up about the explosion in Iran at a missile base located only 25 miles outside of Teheran.

The explosion killed 17 members of the elite Revolutionary Guard, including a general.

Speculation is that the Israeli Mossad is behind the attack. The Mossad could not have done it on its own, so added speculation says that Israel acted together with MEK, the Mujahedeen e Kalq.

The MEK is a well organized anti-regime movement in Iran that has the very strong support of wealthy Iranians living in exile.

The word was that MEK, together with the Mossad, is responsible for a slew of attacks including those against the Iranian nuclear scientists and explosions at other military installations over the past few years.That's the speculation. But the reality is that even if the Mossad supports these acts, it is highly unlikely that they are involved. It is almost impossible to run agents in Iran.

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Saturday November 12, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Arab League suspended Syria. The suspension takes effect as of November 16.

I never thought it would happen.

This was such a surprise move that even caught many Arab League members unawares. It was 18 votes for suspension and only Yemen, Lebanon and, of course, Syria voting against the suspension.

The Arab League has been trying to pressure Syria top stop killing civilians. And each time, even after Syria agreed to stop the killing, it continued - sometimes just minutes and hours after the agreements were reached.

Last week another agreement was reached to stop the killing - and at least 250 civilians have been killed since then.

The Arab League is saying that they will now institute sanctions against Syria and they are calling all members to withdraw their ambassadors. They are walking the walk and talking the talk.

This move by the Arab League may be the most significant step towards ousting Assad.

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Friday November 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, has warned Israel not to attack Iran.

Larijani made it clear that the Iranians are well prepared to defend themselves. He made it clear that should Israel attack, it will be very costly for Israel for the US and for their allies.

Of course, the Speaker did not call Israel by name. In Iran the conventional form is to refer to Israel only as the Zionist Entity and sometimes, as the Zionist Occupier.

The question is whether the Speaker was just bloviating or whether these were true threats.

Normally, in situations like this the more rhetoric Iran uses the less likely they are to strike - words are used to mask how weak they are. However, when Iran utilizes such heavy threat and rhetoric it also means that they are activating their proxies in the region.

Iran has a capable army. Iran also has a very serious set of surface to surface missiles. But it is much easier for Iran to turn up the rhetoric and activate their proxies than to launch an attack or a counter attack against Israel.

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Thursday November 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) report is out. There is nothing new in the report, nothing we did not know from the outset. This exact report could have been written fifteen years ago.

For the past 15 years some of us have been warning about Iran's nuclear ambition - but to no avail. Most of the world, including the IAEA, has been blase, uninterested and downright apathetic to Iran's nuclear aspirations.

In many ways the IAEA actually helped Iran cloak and continue their development. The United States served the same role. They were always willing to give Iran another chance. And each time Iran received a new chance, they used it to improve on their technology.

The UN and the US could be considered "useful fools." Using the term "fools" at least posits that their role was not deliberately malicious. Although some say that the IAEA, under the leadership of Mohammed Baradei, was complicit in Iran's nuclear development. It is true that under the leadership the agency deliberately did not publish findings which were damning to Iran.

This IAEA report is based on foreign intel and strongly suggest that Iran is working to develop nuclear technology in order to create weapons. So what else is new?

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Wednesday November 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There is no explaining why the press did not pick up the story of how US President Obama and French President Sarkozy dissed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

It happened last Thursday and the story has only just begun to get traction. It was a web site in France that broke the story and then the Israeli press ran with it. The New York Post covered the story, but it was a small piece. Then the Huffington Post and AOL posted it and Fox News ran it along with an interview with John McCain saying how embarrassing this is for the United States, and that Obama should know better.

When I tweet the incident I was asked for my sources - suggesting that it was all a made up incident, validated by the fact that the White House would not even make a comment about it.

This is yet another example of a very amateurish Middle East POV.

Even if he believes what he said and was not just politely agreeing with Sarkozy, Obama should never say these things. They will only come back to haunt him in the Jewish community. Even if Jewish donor and communal leaders agree with the president's assessment of Netanyahu they will never tell him that or make it public.

The US president owes the Israeli prime minister both a private and public apology. He has put his fundraisers in a very bad position and he has some more serious explaining to do to his Jewish donors and backers.

This is the same mistake that Obama made when speaking of the '67 borders. Certain things are quietly understood, but they are never voiced.

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Tuesday November 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Beware the open microphone, especially if you are a head of state.

Barack Obama and Nicholas Sarkozy have been caught in a flagrant faux pas.

Following a G-20 press conference, the two men began to talk about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They thought the conversation was private. But the mic was on and a room full of journalists, from around the world, were privy to a 3-4 minute scathing critique before the mistake was discovered.

As a courtesy, none of the journalists rushed to publish the story.

The essence of what they said goes like this:
Sarkozy - I can't stand him
Obama - You're fed up with him, but I have to deal with him every day

The two leaders were there to discuss France's abstention on the question of Palestinian statehood at the United Nations. Obama was very displeased with the French conciliatory gesture.

Then the conversation veered to Netanyahu. They should have stuck to their official agenda.

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Monday November 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli strategists and the military have been considering the next, bad case, scenarios. Teams are training in order to try to prevent them from happening and to combat the possible attacks if they do happen.

The scenario that the army believes is almost certainly on the agenda is the mass kidnapping of a bus - a tourist bus, a school bus, maybe a city bus and then holding the hostages in exchange for prisoners in Israeli jails.

Some strategists believe that this was the motivation and the plan of Hamas terrorists who attacked a tourist bus en route to Eilat this past August. In the end, the terrorists were simply not successful in actualizing their complete plan. They attacked the bus, killed people aboard the bus, but were unable to kidnap the bus.

Two teams are training for this - one in the South of Israel and one in the North.

In the eyes of the military this mass kidnapping is a foregone conclusion.

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Sunday November 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas confirmed rumors that the PA would be supplying housing to the prisoners released from Israeli jails in exchange for Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier held captive for over five year by Hamas.

This admission has serious implications.

The released prisoners were all, in one form or another, terrorists.
Almost the entire PA budget comes from the United States, other Western countries and the United Nations.

These nations and organizations have made it very clear to the Palestinian Authority that no funds can be given, in any way, to terrorist activities.

The money cannot support terrorists or be used as reward for the families of terrorists. The money may not be given before or after acts of terrorism to anyone. No one involved in terror may benefit from the funds given for humanitarian aid.

Giving government-sponsored housing to these terrorist prisoners is in direct violation of the stipulations set down by the donor nations. Where else would Abbas and his government be getting the money?

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Saturday November 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Another flotilla was intercepted by the Israeli Navy on its way to Gaza. The flotilla consisted of two ships, one from Canada and a yacht from Ireland.

27 people, including crew and journalists (one Iranian journalist), were aboard.

The flotilla did not resist but neither did they heed warnings - they continued on their path toward Gaza after being warned away.

The Israeli Navy stopped the ships and towed the vessels and all the people aboard to the port of Ashdod. The participant journalists and crew were all processed by the police and border control. All of the people will be deported.

No weapons were on the ships. No medical or humanitarian aid was on board either. Ostensibly, the ships were claiming to be bringing humanitarian aid to Gaza.

This flotilla embarked on their journey to get publicity - nothing more and nothing less. Unfortunately for them, that has not happened. A few newspapers have written short pieces and there were some pictures, but this flotilla never made the splash the organizers had hoped for.

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Friday November 4, 2011

I've been thinking:

The Palestinians have changed strategy. They have decided not to apply for full membership status in all of the 16 United Nations agencies.

This shift is dramatic.

And it has come about because the Palestinians now realize what they have done- how by lobbying for and then receiving full membership status in UNESCO they have alienated and disenfranchised their major donors. The decision by the United States, Canada and even Israel to stop funding the Palestinians has effectively bankrupted the PA.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon has stepped in and asked the Palestinian Authority to abort their plan. He said that the decision to become recognized members of the various UN agencies will result in the suffering of millions of Palestinian residents.

Israel is now stopping the transfer of taxes to the PA, taxes which come to about $100 million a month. This will strangle the PA.

The damage Palestinian leadership has done to itself is huge. Millions of Palestinians will starve. Millions will suffer terribly -and unnecessarily.

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Thursday November 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday the Egyptian court found 73 people guilty of defiling and destroying the Israel Embassy in Cairo.

One might think that this was a significant symbol of justice for the new Egypt. But no - all 73 people were given suspended sentences.
That means that although these Egyptians were found guilty of perpetrating the crime, not one of them has or will be punished.

The gruesome attacks on the Israeli embassy took place just two months ago, on September 9th and September 10th. It was all caught on tape and available for everyone to see on You Tube. You see the aggressive behavior of hundred and hundreds if not thousands of angry Egyptians as they rip apart the building.

And all the while, the Egyptian army and the Egyptian police stood by and watched. This was an attack on one of the basic rules of diplomacy. A foreign embassy and staff are never to be threatened or touched. They are off limits. Those are the rules.

Those rules explain why the 73 were convicted. But the new Egypt does not care much for these rules - and that explains why the sentences were suspended.

The Egyptian authorities are telling their nation that even if you break the international norm, we are behind you.

Once again, welcome to the new Egypt.

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Tuesday November 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

It is Islamic Jihad that is shooting rockets at Israel from Gaza.

Islamic Jihad, with the permission of Hamas.
I understand why Islamic Jihad is shooting at Israel, what I do not understand is why Hamas is permitting it to happen.

Islamic Jihad is trying to make a place for itself, trying to improve its stature and status in the Arab world. Hamas made their name and turned into a serious player as a result of the Gilad Shalit deal. Islamic Jihad wants to do the same.

Islamic Jihad also wants to show the Arab world that they can launch longer, better and more accurate rockets than Hamas - rockets that they got from Iran.

According to intel sources, Islamic Jihad has many more long range rockets than does Hamas. They have rockets with a range of 30 miles and it is those rockets that are hitting the Israeli cities of Beersheba, Ashdod and Asheklon.

When they send the rockets into Israel, Islamic Jihad is testing the range and accuracy of the product they received from Iran.

So why is Hamas permitting this to happen? Because Hamas is unaware of the potential threat from Islamic Jihad.

Hamas is sitting back and enjoying its success ... but Islamic Jihad has thousands of fighters. They are making a big splash - and it might very well cause the fall of Hamas.

If this situation continues, Israel will have no choice but to go in and actually unseat Hamas.

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Sunday October 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In Libya the National Transition Council, aka the NTC, announced that they will investigate and prosecute the people who executed Col. Moammar Ghadaffi.

I do not believe they will follow through with this announcement. I think that what they are doing is throwing the West a proverbial bone.

The NTC has been hit very hard for having created an atmosphere of vengeance - not justice. during the rise of the opposition and in its aftermath, after Ghadaffi was deposed and in hiding.

The Ghadaffi killing is the most glaring example, but it is just one example of many.

It is clear from the video that Ghadaffi gave himself up. It is clear that he should have been arrested and not killed.

It is clear that that did not happen - and very few Libyans see the injustice or immorality of that act.

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Saturday October 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

For several weeks Gaza was quiet. No shots were fired from Gaza into Israel.

The quiet has now been shattered.

Hamas had been treading very carefully during the final stages of the Shalit prisoner exchange. They did everything they could to preserve the quiet and make certain that their 1,027 prisoners would be released. And they were.

Even when there was a rocket attack during that period, Hamas proved that they handled the rogue activists and that they were neither Hamas operatives nor were they operating under the orders or auspices of Hamas.

Now that the prisoners are home, long range rockets - even longer than before the period of quiet, are being launched into Israel. Recently launched rockets landed in the port city of Ashdod and alarms have been sounded in the city of Kiryat Malachi.

This is called a serious escalation in rocket attacks.

We must watch and see how Israel responds.

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Friday October 28, 2011

I've Been thinking:

The Palestinian Authority has submitted a letter to the United Nations Security Council complaining about Avigdor Lieberman, Israel's foreign minister.

The complaint says that Lieberman is threatening the life of PA President Mahmoud Abbas.

How is he threatening him? By saying that Abbas is "an obstacle to peace" and by saying that any leader would be better than Abbas for the peace process.

This is especially funny because not long ago - when the peace negotiation were working and when there was real progress, there were real and significant threats to Abbas' life. Those outright and direct threats, however, were never brought to the Security Council even though the threats were real enough and people were actually arrested for plotting the assassination of the president of the Palestinian Authority.

These are not threats at all, not real and not veiled. Lieberman is simply pointing out that Abbas is either ineffective or nonchalant about peace. Choose one. Neither leads to viable negotiations.

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Thursday October 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Quartet has put together a plan to jump start negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Israel officially accepted.

The Palestinians said "maybe."

Saeb Erakat, speaking on behalf of the PA, said that they will come back to the negotiating table only if Israel first stops all building in post '67 areas.

Erakat then said that negotiations must resume on the basis of the pre '67 borders.

Once again, the Palestinians have set pre-conditions to the start of the talks.

Behind the scenes, the United States is furious with the Palestinians.

Israel's far-right, hawkish foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, has never been in favor of negotiating with the Palestinians. So when Liberman began shouting about Abbas' most recent intransigence, Israelis did not take him too seriously.

It seems that Lieberman was correct.

Anyone but Abbas.

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Wednesday October 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In the aftermath of the earthquake in Turkey some very interesting issues have emerged.

Two days after the earthquake Turkey has asked Israel for aid - but only in the form of mobile homes.

Nearly 500 Turks are now dead and many more will be discovered. The cold in the Van region is bitter and people are fighting for tents and shelter and fire for warmth.

Turks are questioning the actions of their prime minister and attacking him for the decisions he has been making. There has been little central coordination and aid. AND he has rejected international assistance.

"The prime minister runs for help when it's Palestine or Somalia, sends ships to Palestine, almost goes into war with Israel for the sake of Palestinians, but he doesn't move a muscle when it comes to his own people," said Emrullah , an 18 year-old Turk from Van.

It seems that this is the consensus from the hard hit earthquake region.

The government cares more about the Palestinians than it cares about its own citizens.

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Tuesday October 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Syrians have recalled their ambassador to the United States.
Officially, he was recalled for "consultations."

The ambassador was recalled at a time when tensions between Syria and the United States continue to rise. For their part, the US State Department has said that there are no plans to recall their ambassador to Syria... Although US Ambassador Ford has left due to threats against his life.

Recalling an ambassador for consultations can be a diplomatic gesture or it can be an internal, very practical move. The latter is, without a doubt, the case here.

Syria needs to improve its standing in the Western world, to strategize and to unify their message.

This was neither a gesture nor a statement about the tensions between the two countries. It was a necessary, practical, move.

I expect that the ambassador will soon be returned to Washington.

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Monday October 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Ron Prosor, the Israeli Ambassdor to the United Nations, offered some compelling insight yesterday.

Prosor said that Arab countries have abandoned the Palestinian Authority. He explained that the contributions of Arab countries to the Palestinian Authority amount to 20% of the PA's budget.

His point was best illustrated by saying that the entire Arab world's contribution to the Palestinian Authority amounts to about half the price of the Saudi Prince's new private luxury airplane. That is a mind boggling piece of information and insight.

When you crunch the numbers you discover that while many countries pledge monetary support to the Palestinians, the few countries that actually come through on their pledges and dole out cash and dole it out on time - are the Western democracies.

And that explains why a Congressional threat to withhold aid to the Palestinians is so powerful a threat.

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Sunday October 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Ghadaffi is dead - killed, after he surrendered.

The rules of war as well as the rules of Islam require that the Libyan thug him be taken prisoner. But that is not what happened.

He was killed - murdered in cold blood.

Was this the best outcome?
Was it best to drag him, beat him and kill him or should he have been arrested and tried?

Any established democracy would respond by saying bring the tyrant to trial - but Libya was not and still is not a democracy.

Had Ghadaffi been brought to trial his trial could have been an educational tool and a historical catharsis for a country that suffered under a brutal tyrant. A public trial would have inscribed the many atrocities perpetrated by Muammar Ghadaffi on the public record.

But these Libyans were not interested in history. These Libyans were out for revenge. And that is just what they got.

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Friday October 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Samir Kuntar was quoted all over the Arabic press saying that kidnapping Shalit was a success and that more Israelis must be kidnapped.

Kuntar was himself exchanged in 2008 as part of the deal between Israel and Hezbollah that returned the dead bodies of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. Kuntar was found guilty and admitted to a brutal terror attack that killed five people in 1979. The attack included the murder of four year old baby Einat Haran.

Since his release form Israel Kuntar has proclaimed the need to continue attacking and kidnapping Israelis and exploit them as leverage to gain freedom for prisoners in Israeli jails.

He is not alone. Many voices in the Arab world are calling for more kidnappings. Hamas is the first among them.

As a result of this exchange Hamas has catapulted itself way over Abbas and the Palestinian Authority in the eyes of the Arabic world.

We will see if that lasts.

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Thursday October 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Egyptian interview with Gilad Shalit was a propaganda piece. It was designed by Egypt to position themselves as central to the entire exchange. And, by extension once again, to reposition them as leaders in the Arab world.

The interviewer, Shahira Amin, is unyielding in her defense of the interview. She has said that she did not want to be a propaganda tool. She has bolstered her defense by saying that she resigned from state TV during the riots against Mubarak so as not to be part of the propaganda.

There is a serious flaw in the entire episode. Putting the questions asked of Gilad Shalit aside, putting his health aside, the flaw lies with the interview itself.

Conducting an interview, any interview, went against the agreement that Egypt signed. To complicate the issue even further, Amin claims Hamas was not involved in her interview --- but they were and the pictures prove it. Why lie?

We all know that Shalit was brought into the room by armed Hamas men. In the room itself there were only Egyptian intelligence people. They did not intervene, and neither did the Hamas men. I say this with complete authority and responsibility

http://honestreporting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/shalithamasinterview.jpg

The translator/minder was not from Hamas as has been claimed, but behind Gilad Shalit in the still picture is a Hamas man in a mask with a camera. Shahira Amin hopes that this interview will be the big break in her career and take her international. But she interviewed a captive with his captors in the room - and then lied about it.

Say what she wants, that is propaganda, not journalism.

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Wednesday October 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Gilad Shalit is alive - and that is a miracle. There was no proof of life until he walked, on his own two legs, out of the nightmare he has endured for the past five years and four months and into freedom.

For someone who has endured these long years of Hamas sponsored confinement - in solitude, in a dark closet - like hole that allowed for no sun, with almost no human interaction, he has been declared in reasonably good condition. Sunken eyes, ashen complexion, weak and extremely thin - but able to see, hear, speak and respond.

Now - as so many people are doing, compare Gilad Shalit's condition to that of the prisoners released from Israeli prisons.

The 280 Palestinians already released by Israel came out healthy, strong and feeling secure. They were given three squares a day and fresh air and sunlight. They had access to doctors and regular contact with their family. They had their day in court and then were convicted.

Ethics, morality and the Geneva Convention separate the world inhabited by Gilad Shalit and the world inhabited by Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.

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October 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The exchange has happened.

1 Israeli for 1027 Palestinian prisoners.

The numbers are numbing.

The lesson to be learned is crucial.

Israel made a painful and very costly deal for the life of a single citizen. The cost of letting convicted terrorists go free is enormous. Freeing even one of them makes life more dangerous for Israelis. Multiply that 1027 times.

Israelis are torn about the deal, the families of terror victims are up-in-arms.

Gazans are celebrating.

What will happen next?

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Monday October 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The deal is supposed to go through tomorrow.
I am referring to the prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas, the deal that was negotiated by Egypt and Germany.

There are many hiccups still to come and many that have already come over the past 24 hours. The deal may still breakdown. Debates and discussions and demonstrations have swelled as the time nears.

Whatever happens, it should be clearly understood that this is an extremely painful adventure, an agonizing exchange of prisoners, for Israelis.

Rabbis and ethicists line up on both sides. One side says that the life of Gilad Shalit is more important than the punishment of prisoners convicted of murder. Another side asks how is Shalit's blood redder than the blood of any other victim killed or maimed by the terrorists being released. Others say this is a clear victory for the terrorists who will have achieved their intended goal in kidnapping a soldier and holding him hostage in exchange for prisoners held in Israeli jails.

There is no simple answer.

If the release does go through one family's nightmare will end - but nothing else will change. Nothing at all.

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Sunday October 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Tempers are rising in the "Occupy Wall Street Campaign."

Not just because the number of arrests have increased but because the tone has become very hateful.

I just finished watching a series of interviews with protesters and here are 2 clips from the Daily Caller

http://dailycaller.com/2011/10/07/anti-semitism-at-occupy-wall-street/

The clips depict virulent anti-Semitic feelings by the protesters.

One speaker could best be described as wild and crazed while the second is more stayed and rational in his presentation. Both are, frighteningly, filled with the echoes of medieval hatred of Jews.

Not, I repeat, not anti-Israel or anti-Zionist ideology... just outright anti-Semitism.

The film clips are edited by the Emergency Committee for Israel and are up on their front page. The Committee's board is composed of neo- con William Kristal and religious conservative leader Gary Bauer.

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Friday October 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Hillary Clinton has told Reuters that the plan for full Palestinian membership in the UN and a declaration of Statehood is "going nowhere."

The Secretary of State said that many countries are telling the Palestinians that the formal letter presented to the Secretary General of the United Nations has not advanced their goals. She recounted that those countries are saying that dialogue and negotiations are the only viable way to create a Palestinian state alongside Israel.

It appears that the momentum has swung away from the Palestinians in the Security Council. No doubt, the threat of a US veto as well as the recent vetoes by Russia and China on Syrian sanctions has left the Palestinian question quite simply - hanging.

Unlike in the General Assembly, member states of the Security Council are not likely to push a unilateral declaration knowing that in the end, it will result in nothing more than a large waste of their time in the Security Council.

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Thursday October 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

In a vote of 26 for and 3 against, Israel's cabinet approved the deal with Hamas to free Gilad Shalit. Hamas has also agreed to the deal. That is no small accomplishment.

Shalit, an Israeli with dual French citizenship was kidnapped and has been held by Hamas for nearly five and half years. He is being exchanged for 1,027 prisoners.

Anything can happen - but it looks like the deal will proceed in stages.

The head of Israel's internal clandestine agency, the Shin Bet, said that 90% of the deal was agreed upon three years ago. The only real question was which prisoners would stay and which could leave their Israeli prisons.

Some of the people on the list to be freed in exchange for Shalit include terrorists involved in vicious attacks. The names of Marwan Barghouti and the terrorist responsible for the kidnapping and death of another Israeli soldier, Nachshon Wachsman, have been on and off the list too many times to count. Until all the prisoners are released, we will not know their fate.

These debates are never easy. Getting Gilad Shalit back home while he is still alive is a priority. But each and every one of the 1,027 people who stand to be released is responsible for horrific attacks against Israelis.

Yesterday Halid Mashaal, the head of Hamas, praised the deal and congratulated the squad that kidnapped Shalit. He said it was a successful operation that will lead to the release of over 1,000 prisoners.

That is the Palestinian point of view and we must never lose sight of that mindset.

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Tuesday October 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Peyman Aref is a student at Tehran University.
Aref was recently released from an Iranian prison. He was in prison after being found guilty of anti-government political activity.

Aref was lashed 74 times when he was released. It was for a completely different crime. That crime was the crime of insulting President Ahmadinejad.

Aref had written a letter to the president and did not begin in the customary manner by writing "Salaam," which means "peace upon you."

Because he did not use the proper greeting or salutation he was given 74 lashes - with a whip.

Crime and punishment in Iran are incomprehensible to the Western mind.

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Monday October 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Last night was deadly for Christians in Egypt. Nineteen Christians were killed and well over a hundred hospitalized from injuries caused by plain clothes and riot police.

It began when Christians gathered and marched to sit in at the
National TV building in Cairo. They were protesting the terrible burning and riots against churches in Aswan, located in southern Egypt. The riots started even though local Christian leaders agreed to take down the crosses and bells from the church, Christian symbol that had incensed Muslims in the area.

What began as a peaceful protest turned violent when locals threw rocks and shot pellets at the Christian marchers. Cars were torched and people were arrested. The night ended with a curfew instituted for all of Cairo.

Christians compose about 10% of the Egyptian population -- 8 million out of 80 million people.

Nerves are very raw right now in Egypt. At this point any little incident can set off a large explosion.

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Sunday October 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a huge increase in anti-Semitic, almost medieval, depictions of Jews and Israel in the Arabic press. This is particularly the case with editorial cartoons.

Since the UN hosted the General Assembly these cartoons have become so ugly that some of them actually parallel the infamous Nazi newspaper Der Sturmer which unabashedly depicted Jews as evil beings.
ADL ( the Anti-Defamation League) collected a significant set of the cartoons and posted them online late last week. I have pasted a link to their collection.

What is so telling is that almost all the cartoons depict Israel controlling the United States through the use of the veto they cast in the Security Council. Many smack of the conspiracy theory that says Jews control the world.

http://www.adl.org/anti_semitism_arab/cartoons-in-arab-press-demonize.asp

Remember these cartoons are current, they are not part of a historical archive, they were published just a short few days and weeks ago.

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Saturday October 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There was an amazing picture on the Ynet site. It showed the Iranian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency sitting in the Israel chair.

In the photo the Iranian ambassador is joined by two aides and they are all speaking to the Irish ambassador.

CLICK ON THE GREEN:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4132525,00.html

Under normal circumstances this would not be an issue. It is here because Iranian policy is not even to mention the name of Israel no less be caught in a picture sitting in a seat with the sign in front of you reading "Israel" which Iran refers to only as the "Zionist entity."

Diplomats have been recalled, fired and publically humiliated for far less. Iranian diplomats have been recalled for being in a room with Israelis where they were photographed in the same picture or broadcast together. The policy of Iran is that there is to be neither informal nor formal interaction and no appearance of such interaction.

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Friday October 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addressed the European Parliament yesterday. The speech was extremely problematic.

Abbas spoke about the Palestinian spring. He explained that the Palestinians must cast off the oppressive Israeli leadership and control over their own lives.

What Abbas did was to create a metaphor which is totally inappropriate. The force preventing Palestinian statehood is the lack of negotiations, not Israel's oppressive tactics.

The Palestinian president then compared the 6000 Palestinian prisoners in Israel cells to Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier being held by Hamas. That was just plain offensive.

Palestinian prisoners in Israel have beds, heat and air conditioning. They get 3 square meals a day and have access to doctors, calling time to speak to family, visits with family and even conjugal visit.

Gilad Shalit is held in a subterranean cave. He has not seen light and there has been no interaction with anyone including Red Cross since his abduction on June 25, 2006. His parents have no idea if he is even alive.

The rhetoric and the untruths, the use of metaphor and similes is just irresponsible. It is propaganda. If I were being irresponsible, I would say that Goebels would be proud.

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Thursday October 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Last night Vice President Joe Biden hosted an annual event at the vice president's residence in honor of Rosh Hashannah, the Jewish New Year.

Biden said that "Israel is America's closest, dearest, and most morally-based friend."

Even though I would agree in many ways with the sentiment expressed by the vice president, this is just another in a series of "Biden-isms."

There are several other countries in the world that would like to claim those titles he bestowed upon Israel.

The vice president got it backwards. He should have said: "Israel and America are the closest and the dearest of friends. They are bound by a mutual sense of values and morals."
Adding the words "and the" in place of "is" makes all the difference in the world.

These speeches are matter of public record. The corrected form would not diminish the friendship between the United States and Israel. Rather, it speaks of their bond from a more mature and realistic point of view - a POV the VP should have.

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Tuesday October 4, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The US Congress has frozen $200 million promised as aid to the Palestinians.

Congress is holding the feet of the Palestinians to the fire. By stopping the funding Congress is saying that the Palestinians must embrace negotiations without preconditions with Israel in order to continue getting money from the United States.

The Obama administration is lobbying Congress to keep the money flowing. The White House thinks that stopping aid will do irrevocable damage to the Palestinian infrastructure.

The Palestinians, for their part, are convinced that they will continue to get the US aid.

Popular thought is that the difference in the funding would be picked up by petrol rich Arab countries. That is not clear or guaranteed.

This year alone the United States is scheduled to give $900 million to the Palestinians and only a fraction of that money will be picked up by the Saudis and other Arab countries.

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Monday October 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Vice President Biden was quoted in Saturday's New York Times as having spoken to 15 rabbis. The subject was Jonathan Pollard.

Biden told the group that President Obama was considering clemency for the convicted spy, sentenced to life in prison in 1987.

Biden reported that he advised Obama --- using the term "over my dead body" - not to allow Pollard to get out before his sentence is up.

Considering that Biden was sent by the White House to smooth over issues with the Jewish community and to pave the road for campaign funds to come rolling in, this was an unfortunate admission. .

The Pollard question is a very sensitive for the Jewish community. It has been on the table during the tenure of several presidents. The best method of dealing with the issue is to confront it directly. Biden took it to the extreme.

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Friday September 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran continues its rhetorical attack against the West.
The Iranians are making announcements and releasing proclamations designed to shake and rattle the West. Earlier this week they announced that they would be sending Iranian naval forces to the eastern seaboard of the United States.

Then Iran announced that they were transitioning into mass production of a cruise style missile - a land-to-sea, short range, highly sophisticated weapon which will bolster their defense.

Even more important than its capability is that the new weapon called the "Ghader" or the "Capable One" in Parsi is very easy to operate and will be sold to anyone with enough cash.
These are obviously just verbal games - but they are messages that should be properly understood and placed in the proper context. Then we watch patiently and re-evaluate continually.

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Thursday September 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it first. Then United States Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said it again.

They said there should be no preconditions to talks between the Palestinians and Israelis.

They said the United States does not think that a settlement freeze must be in place before talks can begin.
This was the mistake that President Obama made after taking office in January 2009.

Obama made it clear that the expected a cessation of building before talks would begin. That, in turn, gave Palestinian leadership the license they were searching for to not participate. Even after a 9 month and 1 week freeze out of a total of 10 months, the Palestinians only came back to the negotiation table to discuss extending the building freeze.

This all happened exactly. Not much has happened since.

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Wednesday September 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Iranian navy is quoted in a report in today's IRNA (the Iranian National News Agency) saying that Iran was thinking of deploying navy ships close to the shores of the United States.

Navy Chief Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari is quoted as saying: "Like the arrogant powers that are present near our marine borders, we will also have a powerful presence close to American marine borders."

The head of the Iranian navy is suggesting that Iranian naval boats strike up a post on the Atlantic seaboard.
Interestingly, the US ships in the Straits of Hormuz are often actually in Iranian maritime waters.

Should the Iranians put this plan into action it would result in a serious increase in already tense relations. It would not be an act of war - provided the Iranian naval ship remained outside the boundaries and provided Iran did not harass and interfere with trade.

But this would certainly be a very aggressive move by Iran.

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Tuesday September 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

It is essential to lay out the threat that the US President and Congress have put to the Palestinians.

If the Palestinians pursue a unilateral declaration of statehood they will lose US funding. The Palestinians do not want to lose US funding, so that means that they must return to face to face negotiations with the Israelis.

Only by returning to the table and talking with the Israelis will the Palestinians get their nearly $1 billion in aid from the United States.

The Saudis have promised to pick up the slack - but they said that they will donate only $200 million which falls far short of what the Palestinians need.

The Palestinians are convinced that the US will not follow through with their threat to divest. They are convinced that the US will not let them starve or permit their infrastructure to crumble. The Palestinians are betting that the United States will help despite their threats not to give.

The Palestinians may be correct - but it is highly doubtful.

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Monday September 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey will be joining Iran in a military operation against the Kurds.

This is not just the Turks and Iran sharing information.

This is not a drill, this is not an exercise.

This is a real military operation to attack the Kurds.

Turkey and Iran see the Kurds as a mutual enemy.

This is another very blatant example of how Turkey has turned its back on the West.

Turkey is in possession of some of the most modern, up-to-date weapons systems which Iran will now have access to.

This is earth shattering.

The potential for destruction is enormous.

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Sunday September 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Abbas returned home to Ramallah today. Thousands of Palestinians crowded together to cheer him on for taking a stand and moving them toward statehood.

What was not heavily covered in the Arabic press was that while on the plane, just as he departed New York, Abbas rejected the proposal put forth by the Quartet to jumpstart talks with Israel.

Abbas outright rejected the Quartet's plan. I have not seen the plan itself, only partial bits and pieces that have been leaked - but from that and from previous plans and historical precedent, I can pretty much surmise what is in the Quartet proposal.

Abbas set down two pre-conditions for talks. Negotiations will not begin until all Israeli settlement building stops and until it is agreed that pre 1967 borders will be the borders.

Last year at this time there was a settlement freeze. Israel gave the Palestinians ten months with absolutely no settlement construction. And after nine months and one week and no talks, the Palestinians woke up and said they want an extension of the freeze.

At that point the Palestinian objective became crystal clear. The Palestinians wanted a settlement freeze - not negotiations. For the United States and for Israel the freeze was a tool - not a goal. For the Palestinians the settlement freeze was the goal.

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Saturday September 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions have peaked in the United Nations. Now we can begin to understand what has been happening these past few days.

It all climaxed midday on Friday when Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas delivered his speech. When he reached the rostrum, Abbas was welcomed with a loud ovation. When he lifted a hard copy of the proposal for Palestinian membership the applause grew louder. There was energy in the room, almost every speaker before him had mentioned Palestinian statehood.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyau, a gifted orator, did as fine a job as anyone could have done - but he was not even in the competition.

The looming problem is how to move ahead. Each side now has some serious preconditions.

The Quartet, composed of the US, the UN, the EU and Russia, which has been deadlocked on this issue for a year, finally hammered out some suggestions to advance the face to face negotiations. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon expressed hope that the parties would heed their suggestions.

But seriously - if the UN, EU, US and Russia could not come to agreement for a year and they are objective parties, how difficult do you think it will be for the Israelis and the Palestinians.

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Friday September 23, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has made up his mind. After reading yesterday's interview with the Palestinian press organization MAAN, there can be no doubt that the Palestinians will submit a proposal to the UN Secretary General requesting full membership in the United Nations today.

It is a proposal that will be debated by the Security Council.

US President Obama made it clear that the United States will use its veto to squash the proposal. Ambassador Susan Rice said yesterday that she expects that the debate may begin as early as next week.
It is not certain, however, that the Palestinians have the 9 votes in the Security Council to get to the point that the US will need to use its veto.

Yesterday almost every speaker at the GA said that the Palestinians deserve a state. Almost representative also spoke about the need for Israel to have secure borders and the need to restart direct negotiations.

The purpose of submitting this proposal - which will fail, is contrary to our logic. Western thought would dictate that a failed proposal will hurt rather than benefit the Palestinians ... but in the Middle East, leaders do not always do what is beneficial for their people.

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Thursday September 22, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

United States President Obama addressed the United Nations General Assembly yesterday.

The response was predictable. The Israelis loved the speech, the Palestinians did not.

The Israeli interpretation of the Obama speech is that the president of the United States really understands the issues they confront and that he outlined the US perspective, which is in tandem with the Israeli perspective.

The Palestinians saw it as a "pro Israel speech." Across the board
every response that came from Palestinian leadership was that the Obama speech was pro-Israel and that it did not at all connect to the Palestinian crisis.

Obama said that the way forward is through direct talks and negotiations. He said that votes do not create a state.

Who knows where we are going now. Abbas is scheduled to speak on Friday - you can bet that after hearing Obama speak, the Palestinians are sitting down to rework and significantly alter the Abbas speech.

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Wednesday September 21, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The crunch is on at the UN. The Palestinians are pushing very hard for full membership.

They have 2 hurdles to pass, the Security Council and the General Assembly.

In the Security Council the PA needs 9 votes, no vetoes.

In the General Assembly the PA needs 128 votes.
Gabon, Bosnia and Nigeria are the key to the Security Council vote. Gabon has said that they will not say anything about their intention until Friday's vote - but they will probably either abstain or vote a "no vote." Nigeria has said they will abstain. Bosnia is still up in the air.

If all this happens, the United States will not have to use their veto - the Palestinian proposal will only have gotten 6 or 7votes.
On the other hand, if everyone votes "yes" then the PA will have hit the threshold and the Unites States will have no choice but to use their veto.

Friday is the day of reckoning.

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Tuesday September 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Last night Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu walked out of a UN conference on terror just as Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon stood up to speak.

This was not the first time such an insult occurred. It has become commonplace since last year's flotilla.

Diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey are worsening.

Yesterday US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Ahmet Davutoglu. The meeting lasted a full hour. According to sources a significant amount of time was dedicated to Clinton urging Turkey to mend fences with Israel.

The upshot of Clinton's comments was that at this time the region does not need any more conflict.

The argument was hardly convincing for the Turks.

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Monday September 19, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Question: Who is really against the proposal for Palestinian statehood?
Answer: Hamas.

The prime minister of Hamas, Ismail Haniyah, has blasted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas because Abbas never even asked for the Hamas point of view regarding statehood.

What is the Hamas point of view? Hamas rejects the idea. And because Hamas was elected in a plurality in the last election, that should be reason enough for the UN to reject the PA proposal.

The Palestinian Authority is presenting itself as "the sole representatives of the Palestinian people" and that is truly not the case. The voice of Haniyah and the Palestinians of Gaza is not being heard.

One must realize, of course, that the reason Hamas rejects statehood is because they know full well that a declaration of Palestinian statehood by the United Nations explicitly implies recognition of Israel. They know that a State of Palestine will be defined by the UN as a state next to the Jewish State of Israel.

That reality cannot be justified by Hamas. It would mean the end of their vision. And their vision, their mission, is vanquishing all of Israel and transforming everything into a Palestinian state. Hamas cannot let that happen.

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Sunday September 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians are going for broke. They want to propose statehood in both the United Nations Security Council and the General Assembly.

The Palestinians want full membership in the UN.

As of now the PLO is an organization and with UN observer status. The proposal or proposals is for the Palestinian State. If the Palestinians are denied statehood in the Security Council they can change their status in the General Assembly to that of state observer, a status which, while it may be shy of total membership, is still a vast improvement over their current status.

The next few days at the United Nations will a roller coaster. They will be filled with misleads, empty promises threats and more.

As for the ultimate outcome - there are too many variables, too many egos and too many secret conversations and back corridor proposals still taking place to predict.

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Saturday September 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority President Abbas gave a speech yesterday explaining that he was bringing the proposal for Palestinian statehood to the UN Security Council. He proclaimed that he would demand the legitimate right of the Palestinians people.

Abbas said: "We are the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people and we intend to keep going until we secure full independence."

Hamas took exception to the Abbas speech especially the line about being "the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people."

Hamas wants to remind people that they - Hamas, not the PA - won the plurality in the last election and that they - Hamas - control Gaza and are establishing more and more footholds in the West Bank.

Abbas is keeping his options open. He is clearly see-sawing back and forth. Does he go to the Security Council where he faces certain defeat or to the GA for overwhelming support or should he do both.

Now there is also talk of a softened draft proposal for Palestinian statehood. This soft proposal would be a theoretical acceptance of the idea of Palestinian statehood with an understanding that the details - borders, Jerusalem, refugees, will be handled later.

That softened proposal will be acceptable across the board. It will make all the players happy. Some of the observers, however, might be angered.

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Friday September 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The United Nations General Assembly 2011 has begun. Many issues await resolution. The one issue that has drawn the lion's share of attention is the call for recognition of a Palestinian state.

One Palestinian group is dead set against the proposal --- Hamas. They call the UN bid a "cosmetic move that will not lead to any results."

There are several reasons why Hamas is against the UN resolution:

# 1 Establishing a Palestinian state de-facto recognizes that Israel exists next to it, even if the borders unclear and to be determined

# 2: The Palestinian Authority never even consulted with Hamas before going public with the idea of approaching the UN

# 3: The original idea for proposing statehood in the UN came from Prime Minister Salem Fayyad who was not even elected to office but was appointed to fill what should have been the Hamas post of PM

Hamas is not in the business of accommodating on any of these issues -especially not on recognizing Israel or accepting Fayyad. These issues have prevented Hamas and the PA from coming to a power-share agreement. In May they signed a unity pact but have been stymied since.

This UN bid is just another example of the friction, tension, hostility and downright distrust that exists between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas.

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Thursday, September 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has announced that the Turkish navy will escort any future Turkish aid flotillas en route to Gaza.

This decision is a direct by product of the escalating tensions between Turkey and Israel - tensions that have been building to a crescendo as a result of the UN Palmer Report.

An action of this type would be an act of war --- an armed, foreign ship breaking a sea blockade. A not just any blockade, a blockade that the UN Palmer Report said was justified and legal.

I am not convinced that it will come to this, but the rhetoric is ratcheting up very high.

Very sharp words are coming out of Ankara.

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Wednesday September 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Mahmoud Zahar, one of the central leaders of Hamas, was recently quoted as saying that Hamas is considering moving their headquarters from Damascus, Syria to Cairo, Egypt.

This is hugely significant both in thought and in action.

In Damascus, under the eye of President Bashar Assad, Hamas had free reign to do as they wished - including unleashing terror, coordinating with Hezbollah and with Iran and engaging with terrorist cells across the world.

Hamas used Damascus as a base of operations because in Damascus they were safe from the international community and in Syria they had a home which identified and supported their vision.

Right now Syria is preoccupied with other issues. Freedom of movement has been curtailed and there have been several massacres of Palestinians in Syria. If they do make the move to Cairo, Hamas will be signifying that they feel safe with the Egyptians and that they are secure in the knowledge that their host will support their visions and invest in their goals.

That would be a significant shift for Egypt ... even for the new Egypt.

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Tuesday September 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Given the tremendous tensions and rhetoric that have emerged over the past few weeks between Turkey and Israel it is remarkable that Israel has been so quiet.

It all kicked into gear after the publication of the UN Palmer Report which laid blame for the flotilla on both sides and also said that Israel's sea blockade of Gaza was legal and justified.

Turkey has been on a tirade - stomping, fomenting, fuming and snorting. They have been aggressive and rattling their sabers.

Israel, meanwhile, has been impressively silent. And by being silent Israel has removed the need to engage in battle with Turkey - no PR battle, no battle of rhetoric and not even a battle of diplomacy.

Erdogan, the Turkish leader, is starting to look silly. He is spouting extremist and pretty foolish ideas. Rather than helping his cause, the leader of Turkey is taking his country down a few notches in the eyes of the Western world.

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Saturday September 10, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The expression "a credible and unconfirmed threat" needs to be explained and put into proper context.

A "credible and unconfirmed threat" like the threat that was brought to the attention of the public about NYC and Washington DC just prior to the 10th anniversary of 9-11, means that there is specific intelligence that identifies an area and that a plot has emerged.

The people who received the intelligence are concerned that the report is not simply a plan, but that the plan is at the level of action. In this case the three men behind the plan are already in the US.

An "unconfirmed threat" means that there is information from one very reliable intelligence source --- but only one source.

The 10th anniversary of 9-11 threat is real. The plan seems real. The dates make sense. Much of the information actually comes from the computer that belonged to Osama bin Laden.

The US must react and must protect itself. Protection was already stepped up because of the anniversary. Now the authorities are not only on very high alert, they have a direction.

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Friday September 9, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have officially begun the process of declaring Statehood in the United Nations and of becoming a full member state.
A formal letter has been sent by the PA to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon.

In the letter they explain that their Declaration of Palestinian Statehood is an issue of human rights and self determination. They explain that this is not a question of foreign affairs or foreign relationships with the United States or with any other country. It is a question of relieving the Palestinian people's suffering.

The Palestinians are framing the issue in the context of human rights and have asked the Secretary General for support in helping to move the process along.

The problem is that the Declaration will not have a legal impact. It will be voted on by the General Assembly. The Palestinians believe that they will get 140 countries to vote in support of their Statehood making it an overwhelming majority of member support.
There is no question that this proposal will not be approved by the Security Council.

The only way for the Palestinian Authority to become a full member of the United Nations is to first have the proposal passed in the Security Council and then bring it to the General Assembly.

This vote will not only pass in the General Assembly but it will also alienate Israel and the United States as well as most other Western nations - all the countries who reject the linkage between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

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Thursday September 8, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan blasted Israel again yesterday. He said that Israel was not honoring their military contracts with Turkey.

Hold it ... didn't Turkey cancel all military contracts with Israel?
Evidently Erdogan is upset that Israel has in their possession 10 Heron drones which they originally sold and leased to Turkey. A service contract was included with the drones. As it happens, the drones are under service in Israel right now. And Israel is not returning them.

These drones are part of the secret weapon arsenal that Turkey keeps in order to patrol and use against the Kurds in the north and in Iraq when they threaten Turkey in their battle for independence.

Should the drones be returned to Turkey? That is an interesting international legal question.

It seems clear that the leased drones need not be returned. There is a big risk of not getting them back. The remaining drones should also remain in Israel. True, they are the property of Turkey - but at the present time there is no military agreement to facilitate the return of this very highly sensitive spy equipment.

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Wednesday September 7, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

For years I have been explaining how the Palestinians are not united, explaining that they are perpetually at one another's throat constantly.

Here is another example of Palestinian disunity:

On August 1st both Hamas, who control Gaza and the Palestinian Authority, who control the West Bank, agreed to change their clocks to Daylight Savings Time. The change cut an hour off the long hot days of Ramadan when so many Muslims fast for the entire month.

On August 30th, at the end of Ramadan, the PA and the West Bank returned to Summer Time. Hamas in Gaza remained on DLS.

Here's the hitch: Palestinian Authority institutions in Gaza which include some universities and almost every bank in Gaza, keep West Bank time.

There is so little unity among the Palestinians that they cannot even agree on what time it is.

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Tuesday September 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday China admitted that, in July, they met with representatives of Muammar Ghadaffi to talk about supplying weapons to help Ghadaffi defeat the opposition.

The Chinese insist that that meeting did not result in weapons being transferred to Libya in order to aid Ghadaffi.

Opposition forces in Libya are livid. They know that weapons from China were sent to Algeria and from there made their way into Libya to supply and aid the strongman as he strangled Libya.

This public announcement by China will have a serious impact on diplomatic relations between the New Transitional Council, which is the new leadership of Libya, and China. The new government in Libya has said that they will not deal with China because of this weapons deal.

Get ready for much more vindictive diplomacy coming out of Libya ... Russia will probably be the next country to feel the wrath of the new Libya.

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Monday September 5, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel are crumbling and in crisis and diplomatic relations between Turkey and Egypt are on the upswing.

Relations between Egypt and Israel and Israel and Turkey are on the ropes. And then yesterday Turkey and Egypt set the groundwork for a strategic agreement. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan will visit Egypt on September 12th. It is even rumored that Erdogan will visit Gaza while in the region.

These moves are extremely telling.
On the one hand: Israel is being further and further isolated and the countries that are isolating her are becoming closer and closer.

On the other hand: The Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued an announcement saying that Egypt had no intention of following Turkey's lead and downgrading diplomatic relations with Israel. It said that their situation with Israel is very different from the Turkish situation with Israel.

If this was a kid's game, it would be called seesaw. But this is not a game.

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Saturday September 3, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

There is no doubt. The Palmer Report, the UN report about the flotilla, has brought about a diplomatic crisis.

Turkey has downgraded their ambassadorial status with Israel to that of Second Secretary. That means that the Turkish government has only an extremely low level diplomat handling affairs in Tel Aviv.

The Palmer Report placed serious blame on the organization that coordinated the flotilla and it also said that Israel was justified, but excessive, in defending itself. The Report recommended that Israel express appropriate regret to Turkey. Turkey, however, is not about to accept regrets, Turkey is demanding an apology.

From the philosophical and diplomatic points of view "regret" and "apology" are not synonyms. And believe me, both Turkey and Israel understand the nuance.

Regret is when you are not happy with the results. Regret is when the results may have been unintended, but the action that created the results was justified.

Apology means the entire episode was unfortunate and undesired. Apology means that any given act and the results of that act should have been avoided.

Obviously, Israel believes, as does the UN Palmer Report, that boarding the flotilla was justified and that boarding falls under the rubric of defending their borders.

Obviously, as well, Turkey disagrees.

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Friday September 2, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The UN Palmer Report was made public yesterday. The report was very critical of Turkey and of the Flotilla organizers, calling them totally irresponsible. It was also duly critical of Israel.

After reading all 105 pages, I can safely say that although I disagree with several of the points within the Palmer Report, the report was honest and even handed.

The report reads: "the flotilla acted recklessly in attempting to breach the naval blockade."

"Israel's decision to board the vessels with such substantial force at a great distance from the blockade zone and with no final warning immediately prior to the boarding was excessive and unreasonable."

"This included physical mistreatment, harassment and intimidation, unjustified confiscation of belongings and the denial of timely consular assistance."

And then the report advises that Israel should pay and express regret.

"An appropriate statement of regret should be made by Israel in respect of the incident in light of its consequences."

"Israel should offer payment for the benefit of the deceased and injured victims and their families, to be administered by the two governments through a joint trust fund of a sufficient amount to be decided by them."

Both the Israeli and Turkish representative were given a one page limit on which to respond.

Mr J. Ciechanover, the Israeli on the committee, disagreed with several findings. The Turkish representative, Mr S. O. Sanberk, was far more direct. He wrote : "I reject and dissociate myself from the relevant parts and paragraphs of the report, as reflected in paragraphs ii, iv, v, vii of the findings contained in the summary of the report and paragraphs ii, iv, v, vii, viii and ix of the recommendations contained in the same text."

The Palmer Report offers suggestions on how to progress from here. They recommend a committee to help move things along.

Interestingly Israel has already offered regrets ... Turkey wants a full blown apology.

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Thursday September 1, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian presidential candidate Mohammed Al Baradei gave an interview to the Egyptian newspaper al Sharouk.

Baradei expressed anger with the current military rulers for not permitting international observers to monitor the upcoming elections.
Baradei is the former head of the IAEA, the UN's nuclear watchdog.

He understands the importance of external supervision. He knows well that without international monitors this election will be a farce.

In the interview Baradei explains that the world has already stopped coming to Egypt - tourism has dropped totally and investors have all run away. A canned election will not convince the investors or the tourists to return.

What Baradei says makes perfect sense, but no one is willing to listen.

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Wednesday August 31, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Pew Research Center just came out with a study about Muslims in American. The survey is geared to coincide with 9-11 commemorations.

The objective of the study was to find out how Muslims living in the United States view America. As can be expected, some of the answers were predictable and some were surprising.

1000 US Muslims were called at their homes. This sampling represents the 2.75 million Muslims living in America of whom 1.8 million are adults and 300,000 are converts to Islam.

56% are pleased with the direction the United States has taken
76% are pleased with President Obama's performance
80% are satisfied with their lives in America
70% said they cooperate with law enforcement on an appropriate level
70% had an unfavorable view of al Qaeda.
90% voted as Democrats in 2008

Not surprising is that this study tells us that Muslims in the United States are not only comfortable here, they are elated to be in a democracy like the US.

As a rule Muslims in America are neither extremist nor do they support extremist movements - quite the opposite, they assist law enforcement in rooting out undesirable, extremist, Muslims.

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Tuesday August 30, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Nile TV, national Egyptian television, is reporting that the Egyptian army intercepted a large transport of weapons on their border with Libya.

The weapons were coming from Libya, across the Egyptian border, through Egypt, into Gaza and from there straight into the hands of Hamas terrorists. The situation is not new. Libyan tribes have become the major supplier of weapons to Gaza.

The 140 tribes of Libya get their weapons from NATO and from the United States. That means US tax dollars and weapons are being sold to Hamas, the arms terrorists of Gaza .In July Israel told the United States that this was happening - but the information fell on deaf ears.

One thing should be perfectly clear: the force that ousted Ghadaffi is not friendly.

Now there is not only verbal confirmation but also televised news footage confirmation. Perhaps now the United States will take off their rose colored glasses and respond appropriately.

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Monday August 29, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is always developing new weapons. The Iranians are always announcing new and improved items for their arsenal.

Because of their constant announcements and celebrations it is not always clear what is true and what is bluster. Iran is known to have fabricated military information in the past. It is only after Iran tests their new equipment and actually begins to use their new equipment that we can believe the announcements.

Iran recently displayed and tested a new cruise missile. The name of the missile is Ghader or Capable. It has a range of 124 miles and can destroy warships. This missile is lighter than it older predecessor and it can fly with much more accuracy and maneuverability than its predecessor.

Until now the Iranians had have many different missiles for middle and short range targets. The Ghader will add to the depth and power of their weapon cache and their weapon sales.

We all know that when push comes to shove, the real purpose behind Iranian military development is to make huge profits on the sales of their weapons.

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Sunday August 28, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Despite all the press - internet, radio, TV and traditional print media filled with screaming headlines that Egypt was pulling their ambassador from Israel, the Egyptians cannot and will not pull the ambassador.

An official recall of an ambassador is a very serious diplomatic statement. It usually means an end to relations as they were and it means that a diplomatic downgrade is in the works.

The Egyptian press pushed the story. But within a day it was clear that the ambassador was not going home and the official foreign ministry press releases never even mentioned the possibility of a recall.

Recalling the ambassador to Israel would be a setback to the peace deal between Israel and Egypt and it is not in Egypt's best interest to scuttle the peace deal.

There is however popular support to demonize Israel.

The result is that Egyptian leadership maintains a schizoid stance when it comes to Israel. It must permit the vehement anti-Israel propaganda and vitriol. And it must also reach over and continue working with Israel on mutually beneficial projects.

This is all part of what it means to be the new Egypt.

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Saturday August 27, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

The Washington Times was the first media outlet to report that the terrorists who struck Israel in the area around Eilat were members of an al Qaeda terrorist unit. The unit was based in Sinai.

For some time now there have been intelligence reports that al Qaeda was organizing cells in the Egyptian Sinai and training there. These groups and individuals also trained in other parts of the world especially Iran, Pakistan and Syria.

In general, the activities of these terrorist units were local and they seldom crossed the border. There are, however, always exceptions and the barrage of rockets that hit Aqaba last year were also said to have been shot by al Qaeda cells in the Egyptian Sinai.

The intel and the evidence seem to point in one direction. If it really is al Qaeda behind these attacks, the rules of the game have shifted and as such, the rules of engagement will shift, as well.

Egypt - even the new Egypt, does not want al Qaeda perpetrating attacks from their soil. Not locally and not against Israel.

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Friday August 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has filed an official complaint to the United Nations Security Council.

The Security Council has not yet condemned the recent terror attacks that killed eight Israelis. Why? What is stopping the Security Council from condemning the horrific events that targeted innocent civilians?

The answer is simple. The answer is Lebanon.

Lebanon has refused to permit the passage of any wording condemning the terrorist attack. In response, Israel's new ambassador to the UN, Ron Prosor, filed a formal complaint. He added the recent rocket fire, too. That attack should have been condemned by the Security Council as well.

The letter of complaint from Israel was sent to Ban Ki Moon, the Secretary General of the United Nations.

Prosor explained that these terrorist actions against Israel are more evidence proving that Gaza, under supposed control by Hamas, is a "hotbed of terror."

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August 25, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

It should come as no surprise that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, no matter what, continues to support and side with Colonel Muammar Ghadaffi.

Chavez said that Venezuela will not recognize the National Transitional Council in Libya. During a cabinet meeting that was broadcasted on Venezuelan television Chavez said boldly and clearly that ousting Ghadaffi was wrong.

He said: "This is kicking, spitting ... on the most basic elements of international law."

He said: "Where are the international rights? This is like the caveman era."

Chavez saw the intervention of NATO as an example of how the West is trying to unseat and exploit the non-Western world.

His good friend Ghadaffi would agree. With friends like these ...

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Wednesday August 24, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday, head of Russian Chess Federation Kirsan Ilyumzhinov announced that Muammar Ghaddafi had told him by telephone that he was still in Tripoli, alive and well, and had no plans to leave the city.

On a recent visit to Libya Ilyumzhinov met with Ghadaffi. The Russian representative visited during the NATO bombing campaign.

According to Ghadaffi's eldest son Mohammad, he came to talk about the situation and relay messages to and from the Russian government.
Ilyumzhinov said that he had called Ghadaffi by telephone on Tuesday afternoon and they spoke. He said that the former leader of Libya sounded as if he was gearing up for a fight.

This is an important message. Ghadaffi has not been seen in public or on tape since a television appearance on June 21. Now we have the word of a very distinguished Russian official that Ghadaffi is in Tripoli and is during well.
We shall see.

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Saturday August 20, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Israel successfully found and targeted the commander of the group that has been launching rockets into the southern region.

In tandem with the horrific terror attacks of yesterday, approximately twenty GRAD rockets rained down on Israel within a 24 hour period. At least ten people were injured, some seriously, from the rocket attacks.

Israel's intelligence and operational units shifted into high gear and Samil Abdul Mati, Senior Commander of the Palestinian Resistance Committees (PRC), was found. Abdul Mati was on his motorcycle in Northern Gaza when Israel dispatched the missile that killed him.
As an important point of clarification - Israel's action was not retaliation.

Israel engaged in a surgical attack - a defensive mission to prevent future rocket attacks. Abdul Mati was responsible for numerous past sorties and was planning future attacks on Israel.

Israel's retaliation will take place later, of that I am certain.

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Friday August 19, 2011
I've Been Thinking:

The horrific terror attacks that struck Israel three, nearly simultaneous, times yesterday are a product of the out-of-whack metabolism that is raging in the region. At last count, eight Israelis were dead, killed by terrorists

There is no doubt about it. These attacks were able to take place because of the combination of the fall of Hosni Mubarak and an opening of the border between Gaza and Egypt.

Perpetrators, who probably have links to Egypt, and were probably aided by Gaza residents who scouted the area from their vantage point. The terrorists shot at and murdered Jewish Israelis on their way to vacation in Eilat.

At the same time as the shootings, road side bombs were detonated and three rockets were shot from Gaza toward Israel. All three rockets were intercepted mid-air by Israel's new Iron Dome anti-rocket anti-missile defense system.

Israel retaliated with an air force strike on Gaza.

The Israeli counter strike is not yet completed. Israel will seek out the group that organized and perpetrated the attacks and Israel will counter hard and counter surgically.

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Thursday August 18, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday's Egyptian daily al Gomhuriya quoted former Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak as saying that Syria strongman Bashar Assad should step down because of the "crimes he committed against his countrymen."

Mubarak said that Assad should honor the Syria people's request and he should resign.

This entire episode is probably fiction.

There is no free press in Egypt and Mubarak has not and will not make public statements - about anything. He is being held in an Egyptian hospital under guard as a defendant in the case that could cost him his life. The last thing on his mind is what is happening in Syria and whether Bashar Assad should resign.

However, the current dictators of Egypt most certainly have an interest in Bashar Assad.

Their first interest in weighing in on Syria is to try to position themselves, once again as they were under Mubarak, as leaders in the Arab world. It may, however, be a miscalculation to invoke the old guard and the prowess of a fallen leader to achieve this status.

The image of Mubarak might backfire and Egypt will gain nothing more than a reputation as pathetic interventionists.

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Wednesday August 17, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt cancelled their friendly soccer match against Brazil.

The match was schedule to take place on Tuesday, September 6 but because of security reasons that match will not happen.
Brazil is a five-time world champion and when the two teams last met, Brazil won 4-3 in a nail biting match.

Things have changed. It used to be that soccer was more important than just about anything in Egypt ... including politics.

But now, if something were to go wrong during a match with Brazil - if there were to be a security snafu while the Brazilian team was in

Egypt ... then Egypt would suffer an embarrassment at a level beyond which any Westerner can possibility imagine.

So the authorities, correctly, cancelled the game.

And besides, the Egyptian soccer team does not even have a coach right now.

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Tuesday August 16, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Jordanian Prime Minister Marouf al-Bakhit called on Syria to stop killing civilians.

Jordan has gone on the record saying that reforms and more liberal policies must be implemented in Syria and that the time has come to reshape the powers that govern Syria.

The Jordanian news service Petra reported all this yesterday. The prime minister is quoted as saying: "There is a need to stop violence immediately, start implementing reforms and resort to dialogue."

On Sunday The King of Jordan also called a press conference and announced a set of proposed changes that would empower his own parliament. The reforms would give the parliament some of the powers that had been under the control of and reserved for the King

So Jordan calls on Syria to change and reform and Jordan slowly initiates her own changes and reforms. Jordan is, in a matter of speaking, putting her money where her mouth is.

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Monday August 15, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas went on the record yesterday and said that the UN proposal to unilaterally declare a Palestinian State will break the stalemate and help move Israel and the Palestinians closer to a negotiated settlement.

A message was also sent out by Hanan Ashwarwi saying that the Palestinians plan to ask the Security Council for approval.

The Palestinians hope that the US will abstain.

If the US does abstain the proposal will pass the Security Council and go to the General Assembly where the Palestinians have lined up at least 134 countries that they can count on to vote in favor of statehood.

The Palestinians have been told that the US cannot vote in favor of their statehood in the Security Council. But an abstention, that might be a way out. At least, so think the Palestinians.

The problem or the genius with this logic is that if the United States abstains it will turn US Middle East policy on its head. This administration, however, has been known to do just that. It would mean an end to direct negotiations and would thrust the region into conflict.

On the flip side, if the US vetoes rather than abstains, as would be the expectation, it would mean a thumb in the eye of the US by the Palestinians. The move would publically humiliate the United States. The Palestinians would call them out saying you are not really in favor of a Palestinian state - you pay lip service, but you the great magnanimous United States of America, are preventing the declaration of a Palestinian state.

Once again, the United States has managed to stab itself in the back - diplomatically speaking, of course.

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Sunday August 14, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Most foreign affairs analysts and policy makers would agree that the threat of Iran making a nuclear weapon is probably the greatest single danger facing the Western world. The fear is not just that Iran may use that weapon against Israel or other Western targets, but that Iran will supply nuclear weapons or nuclear technology to any country or group wanting it.

The Russians are not immune to that fear. It appears that they are now attempting to use their special relationship with Iran to bring about a mutually acceptable resolution to this nuclear issue.

Over the past few days Russia Foreign Minister Sergie Levrov and a special emissary of the Russian president have been involved in high level discussions and meetings with Iranians - including discussions with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The purpose of the discussions is to assure Iran that they will be able to develop nuclear technology ... like every other country in the world ... with supervision.

Iran trusts Russia more than any other country on this issue with the possible exception of China. Russia has an ongoing relationship with Iran on nuclear development and Russia is bound to make money on any deal that is struck.

This plan may succeed. This time, Iran might be willing to play along.

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Saturday August 13, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

If the Middle East were a game, the game would be called Push-Me Pull-You, Middle East style.

The main split in power in the Middle East right now is between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Although there are those who would have us believe that there is one united voice in the Middle East, that is a total myth and fabrication.

Saudi Arabia pulled its ambassador from Damascus. They did it not simply to take a stand against a tyrant who murders civilians, they did it because Saudi Arabia is taking a stab at Iran. Iran is linked to the Syrian regime and Syria is one of Iran's few friends in the region.

Iranians are Muslims but they are not Sunnis--- they are Shiites. The Iranians have forged a link with Syria who are Allawites --- a breakoff of Shiia. The Saudis want to isolate Iran and one method is by forcing Iran's few friends to fall.

If Syria falls it would strike a significant blow to Iran. And it could help bring about a drastically altered Saudi vision of the region - one in which Iran is not a player.

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Friday August 12, 2011
I've Been Thinking:

Commentary from the other side of the pond: Even casual observation of the rising surge of violence enveloping Great Britain leads us to conclude that the rioters feel comfortable and anonymous enough to join in and celebrate the destruction.

Mass mentality is a powerful tool - it is a dangerous and destructive tool.

Scotland Yard will slowly call people to account for their actions and their crimes. The police are using facial recognition software to identify participants and will, in the end, find and prosecute the perpetrators for their role in these days of bedlam.

It used to be that after riots people, the masses, slipped back into the woodwork and resumed their normal lives. The average rioter did not refer to the events and it was as if no one had been part of the destruction - as if they were all anonymous, leaving only the leaders to accept responsibility.

Technology has changed all that. Now, no one can slip away and even faces hidden behind masks can be identified,
We are witnessing a new level of civil discontent. Now comes the consequences.

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Thursday August 11, 2011

I've Been Thinking:

Events in the Middle East are sometimes so hilarious that even experienced analysts throw up their hands in disbelief.

Case in point: the other day I read about a high level report prepared for Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president. The report was about the poisoning death of Arafat.

Two other reports like this have already surfaced, so I was not surprised to read that there was a third account. The first two reports rambled on, page after page, explaining how the Israelis poisoned Arafat in his French hospital bed.

This report contained new and different information. It blamed Mohammed Dahlan - not the Israelis. Dahlan was Arafat's strong-arm man in Gaza, he was an up and coming leader under Arafat. Dahlan and Marwan Barghouti were thought to be the future of Palestinian leadership. And Dahlan was the preferred choice of the Clinton administration.

Mohammed Dahlan has, for the most part, been out of the Palestinian picture ever since the coup that ousted Fatah from Gaza. He did, however recently criticize the PA leader by suggesting that Abbas saw himself above the law for pushing off elections. Dahlan was slapped with a charge of sedition and has left the country.

In order to further sully Dahlan and make certain that he cannot make a play for power this new report emerged, constructed and made public by Abbas' cronies.

I wonder why they didn't just come out with it and call him a Mossad operative?

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